2016 should be the Republicans’ year for the White House

2016 should be the Republicans’ year for the White House

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The decline & decline of Jeb Bush in the Republican nomination betting. Was hot favourite – now a 16% chance pic.twitter.com/ZEuOVfyfjG — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 24, 2015 But only if they can choose the right candidate Hillary Clinton will be the Democrats’ candidate for the presidency next year, short of falling under a bus. Sanders is far too left-wing to be electable and offers nothing beyond his base, Biden has announced he won’t run, and no-one else is on…

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How readers of the different national papers voted at GE2015

How readers of the different national papers voted at GE2015

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YouGov chart showing how readers of different national papers voteVia @JoeMurphyLondon pic.twitter.com/Tvswr1XHVO — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 23, 2015 I love this chart which has just been produced by YouGov. It shows the splits of the readerships of the main national newspapers at the general election in May. Overall there’s nothing that’s really surprising though, perhaps, the fact that the Guardian has far fewer Lib Dem than the the FT,Times or the Telegraph comes as something as a surprise. Back…

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North American pointers for John McDonnell’s growth strategy

North American pointers for John McDonnell’s growth strategy

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Don Brind on Friday The biopic of Steve Jobs had its premiere of at the London Film Festival last weekend. Just days before, the company he founded was in the dock in a New York court – and lost. The jury found that Apple had infringed patents held by the University of Wisconsin by using technology developed by University researchers in their I phones and IPods. The university is claiming $400 million in damages which would be a record patent…

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Hillary Clinton’s good week gets even better

Hillary Clinton’s good week gets even better

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Hillary set to become even stronger favourite for nomination after Senate Benghazi hearing https://t.co/5tfB0dg18p pic.twitter.com/iZPk8Ju4HF — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 23, 2015 It has been an amazing 7 days for the Hillary Clinton campaign to be the next President of the United States. Firstly there was the reaction to the initial Democratic candidates live TV debate. The general view was that she had been the winner and this had been backed up by the polling. This had an immediate impact…

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Local By-Election Preview : October 22nd 2015 – 4 Con and 2 Lab defences

Local By-Election Preview : October 22nd 2015 – 4 Con and 2 Lab defences

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Tottington on Bury (Lab defence) Result of council at last election (2015): Labour 35, Conservatives 12, Independents 2, Liberal Democrats 2 (Labour majority of 19) Result of ward at last election (2012): Labour 1,085 (42%), Conservative 965 (38%), United Kingdom Independence Party 379 (15%), Liberal Democrat 135 (5%) Candidates duly nominated: David Foss (Lib Dem), Martin Hayes (Lab), Ian Henderson (UKIP), Greg Keeley (Con), John Southworth (Green) Bury is that sort of council that can either be a battleground council…

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Ipsos MORI referendum REMAIN lead drops by an astonishing 24 points

Ipsos MORI referendum REMAIN lead drops by an astonishing 24 points

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New Ipsos-MORI phone poll finds REMAIN on 57% to LEAVE 43% on EU referendum. In June the firm had 69-31 for staying. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 22, 2015 Ipsos MORI 14% remain EU referendum lead means once again phone polls more likely to be pro-EU than online. Latest YouGov REMAIN was 1% up — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 22, 2015 By a margin of more than 2 to 1 those sampled by @IpsosMORI say they think REMAIN will win…

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Oldham West & Royton set to be Corbyn’s first big electoral test

Oldham West & Royton set to be Corbyn’s first big electoral test

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BBC News data & graphic He needs a good result to calm his party’s nerves The very first by election of the 2015 parliament has now been triggered by the sad death of Michael Meacher who, it might be recalled, sought to mount a leadership challenge in the post-Blair leadership election. On the face of it this should be an easy hold for Labour although UKIP will have noted that they did pretty well there on May 7th coming in…

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Hillary moves much closer to the nomination following Joe Biden’s announcement that he won’t be running

Hillary moves much closer to the nomination following Joe Biden’s announcement that he won’t be running

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Latest Betfair trade: Clinton 83.3% chance Next year’s White House race looks a lot clearer this evening following Joe Biden’s announcement within the past hour that he will not run for the Democratic nomination. There are other runners still in the race including the Vermont socialist Senator, Bernie Sanders but it’s hard to see how they can mount a challenge that puts Hillary at risk. Sanders who is in his mid 70s has been polling well, although Hillary is a…

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