Nick Palmer: An EU referendum REMAIN victory is a 75% chance

Nick Palmer: An EU referendum REMAIN victory is a 75% chance

Comments 0 Comment

The factions that’ll make up the EU referendum battle In my last article, I argued that voters weren’t yet paying attention to the EU debate, but that I thought IN would win in the end. This article explains why. One of the charms of The Game of Thrones is the sheer variety of interacting factions, feuding, allying, and eyeing each other in guarded and temporary neutrality. The EU referendum is going to be just like that. It’s possible to identify…

Read More Read More

Antifrank on the impact of the big Lords Individual electoral registration vote

Antifrank on the impact of the big Lords Individual electoral registration vote

Comments 0 Comment

It could be more significant than tax credits The House of Lords revolt on tax credits has got a huge amount of attention.  Less newsworthy, because it didn’t succeed, was an attempt in the House of Lords to delay the introduction of individual electoral registration by 12 months beyond the government’s proposed timetable.  The implications of that vote, however, may be more far-reaching.  What effect will it have? This post is going to be both long and technical.  That is…

Read More Read More

David Herdson writes: Ed Miliband: my part in his downfall

David Herdson writes: Ed Miliband: my part in his downfall

Comments 0 Comment

Did I win the Conservatives the election? A year ago today I received an unsolicited e-mail from an extremely senior Conservative election strategist, asking if I ever came to London as he’d be interested in picking my brains. Unsurprisingly, I said ‘Yes’. The approach wasn’t completely out of the blue. A few months earlier, he was a speaker at the 2014 Yorkshire Regional conference and at the end of the session, I door-stepped him in order to hand him a…

Read More Read More

Tonight’s PB quickie poll and this week’s local elections results

Tonight’s PB quickie poll and this week’s local elections results

Comments 0 Comment

Tonight's Politicalbetting pollWill George Osborne be David Cameron's successor as CON leader? — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 30, 2015 Risedale on Barrow in Furness (Lab defence) Result: Labour 428 (53% -24%), United Kingdom Independence Party 193 (24% +1%), Conservative 187 (23%, no candidate in 2015) Labour HOLD with a majority of 235 (29%) on a swing of 12.5% from Lab to UKIP Shenfield on Brentwood (Lib Dem defence) Result: Conservative 852 (57% +19%), Liberal Democrat 483 (33% -11%), United Kingdom…

Read More Read More

Corbyn’s LAB closes the gap once again in the October ComRes/Mail phone poll

Corbyn’s LAB closes the gap once again in the October ComRes/Mail phone poll

Comments 0 Comment

ComRes Mail poll finds just 8% saying government should go ahead with Osborne's tax credits plan pic.twitter.com/Tn9KMPKHiw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 30, 2015 Today's 5% CON lead in ComRes phone poll compares with the13% gap recorded by firm 2 weeks ago in online survey — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 30, 2015 This may ease some jitters within the red team After the GE2015 polling disaster ComRes was the first firm to announce radical changes in its weightings to deal…

Read More Read More

Frank “Houdini” Field leads the fight against MP deselection

Frank “Houdini” Field leads the fight against MP deselection

Comments 0 Comment

But Donald Brind wonders if this is a battle Labour should be having now? Labour’s veteran maverick Frank Field has put himself in the vanguard of MPs getting ready to fight deselection. There could be no better leader for those fearful about the perceived threat from Corbynistas in their constituencies. In his 36 years as MP for Birkenhead he has survived three attempts to oust him. The most serious was in 1989, a battle I covered for the BBC. We…

Read More Read More

Local By-Election Preview : October 29th 2015 – 3 Con, 2 Lab and 1 Lib Dem defences

Local By-Election Preview : October 29th 2015 – 3 Con, 2 Lab and 1 Lib Dem defences

Comments 0 Comment

Risedale on Barrow in Furness (Lab defence) Result of council at last election (2015): Labour 27, Conservative 9 (Labour majority of 18) Result of ward at last election (2015) : Emboldened denotes elected Labour 1,474, 1,361, 1,310 (77%) United Kingdom Independence Party 438, 348 (23%) Candidates duly elected: Michael Cassells (Lab), Carole Friend (Con), Colin Rudd (UKIP) For such a Labour heartland, Barrow and Furness’ constituency results have been, of late, anything but a heartland. At the 1992 general election…

Read More Read More

The latest PB/Polling Matters Podcast on Polling Matters – Tax Credits, Lords reform and George Osborne

The latest PB/Polling Matters Podcast on Polling Matters – Tax Credits, Lords reform and George Osborne

Comments 0 Comment

What’ll happen to the Lords,tax credits and George Osborne? Polling Matters returns. Keiran, Rob and James discuss the implications of the tax credits row for the House of Lords. What do the public think about welfare? What do they think about the House of Lords and has George Osborne damaged his chances of becoming Prime Minister this week? Remember tonight’s PB gathering in London: All invited Details and map can be found here.