Contenders need to be able to reach out beyond their party bases One of the biggest UK political battles and what will certainly be a big political betting event will be next year’s race for the London will between Zac Goldsmith for the Blues and Sadiq Khan for the Reds. This will be the fifth time there’s been such an elections and so far CON has won two, LAB one and independent one. The latter, of course, was Ken in…
Attention Tory leadership candidates: 71% of party members inclined to @vote_leave https://t.co/zxhtCslumi pic.twitter.com/TJZRtKSL6f — Tim Montgomerie ?? (@montie) November 3, 2015 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
Because there is a general clampdown down in the US on online betting many US observers are having to look at what is happening on the UK markets in order to get a sense of the betting sentiment on the White House Race. A new American site has just been established, which is monitoring this daily and producing regular reports on how things are being seen. It is covering three elements, the Democratic nomination, the Republican nomination and of course…
UKIP set to choose John Bickley for Oldham & R by election. He came within whisker in Oct 2014 Heywood by-election pic.twitter.com/h99YY4SzvR — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 3, 2015 Can he repeat his Heywood & Middleton magic? One of the huge shocks, and what in retrospect turned out to be a good pointer to GE2015, was the way that UKIP ran LAB so close in the October 2014 by-election Heywood & Middleton which is very close to Oldham. This, like…
2 months of EU referendum polling. Notice how YouGov – subject of complaint from LEAVE, has had best OUT figures pic.twitter.com/DqQsWw5Csy — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 2, 2015 The phone surveys are best for IN online ones for OUT Trying to come to any conclusions from the referendum polling is difficult because there’s such a different pattern with the phone surveys painting a totally different picture of the race than the online ones. So in the past two weeks we’ve…
Ladbrokes betting on who will lead the LEAVE campaign pic.twitter.com/3eTZQK2Yc8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 2, 2015 Boris trails Nigel and Theresa in the polling As the referendum gets closer a key decision which could have huge impact on British politics in all sorts of ways is is who will lead the OUT campaign. Survation carried out some polling for LEAVE.EU and found:- Theresa May 22% Nigel Farage 18% Boris Johnson 14% These findings are somewhat surprising. I’d have expected…
@LordAshcroft Given the 36.9% national CON vote share at GE2015 that seems quite reasonable. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 1, 2015 National vote shares at GE2005 & GE2015 levels do matter Yesterday afternoon the Cameron biographer, pollster and former Tory treasurer, Lord Ashcroft, made the above perceptive Tweet about the limitations of the current government’s power. While in the 2010-2015 parliament this had been because of the Lib Dem coalition the reality now is that the Cameron government’s main limitation…
Part 1: The Basics 2016 is set to be a bumper year for political betting, with the Holyrood, London Mayoral and US Presidential elections coming up. But first there is another contest which should provide some excellent betting opportunities: the Irish General Election. It’s time to start doing our homework. When? The last election was held in February 2011, and the next must be held by the 8th April 2016. There had been speculation that the Taoiseach Enda Kenny would…