As Cameron struggles to make progress with the EU talks two new referendum polls have LEAVE moving up

As Cameron struggles to make progress with the EU talks two new referendum polls have LEAVE moving up

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Based on this it is too close to call Above is my latest table of EURef polls showing the two that were published overnight from Survation and ICM. Both show LEAVE making progress. What we really need are some more phone polls which have suggested a very different outcome from the online surveys which predominate. There are three December phone polls to come and I’m hoping that ComRes, ICM for the Guardian and Ipsos-MORI will have included referendum voting intentions…

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This is not America

This is not America

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Alastair Meeks looks at the politics of statistics Every few days, a twitter account run by the Guardian called @thecounted tweets the cumulative total of deaths at the hands of the police.  The number is shocking.  As at 10 December, the total stood at 1061 for the calendar year 2015.  As often as not Guardian News retweets this information to its predominantly UK-based followers.  The impression given, presumably deliberately, is of a police force that is too trigger-happy by far….

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Guido’s tweet could be right: George Osborne is a Tory version of Ed Miliband

Guido’s tweet could be right: George Osborne is a Tory version of Ed Miliband

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Have said it before and I will say it again, he's the Tory version of Ed Miliband https://t.co/u1aw7osfeQ — Guido Fawkes (@GuidoFawkes) December 14, 2015 Like Ed his awkwardness is not going to go away Shortly after Ed Miliband was elected LAB leader in September 2010 some bright spark set up a website devoted to pictures of the opposition leader looking awkward. In its way this hit the nail on the head and was the forerunner of the famous Ed…

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UKIP sought to make Oldham a referendum on Corbyn but it ended up being a vote on itself

UKIP sought to make Oldham a referendum on Corbyn but it ended up being a vote on itself

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Does immigration move votes in the way UKIP thinks it it does? Over the past few days I’ve had three conversations with people who were in Oldham for the by-election and which are the basis for this post which seeks to explain why we all got it so wrong. Just look at the PB competition forecasts or the betting history and you realise that it wasn’t meant to be a LAB victory with an increased majority. Since September 12th the…

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The Labour share of the vote in 2020

The Labour share of the vote in 2020

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Ladbrokes have a market up on whether Labour’s share of the vote will rise or fall at the next general election. My initial reaction was to back ‘fall’ because of the appalling personal polling figures that Jeremy Corbyn has, but to paraphrase Donald Rumsfeld, there’s quite a few known unknowns about the next general election that might have an impact on this bet, they are, inter alia, We don’t know who will be leading the Conservative Party (whomever it is…

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The pollster with the best record in Iowa has Cruz taking 10% lead in the 1st state to decide

The pollster with the best record in Iowa has Cruz taking 10% lead in the 1st state to decide

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The Des Moines Register poll Cruz 31% +21 Trump 21% +2 Carson 13% -15 Rubio 10% +1 Bush 5% – (Comparisons with last DMR poll in October) As was discussed on the last post Ann Selzer polling for the state’s leading newspaper has over the years built up an enviable reputation. Her approach reaches those most likely to vote in the caucuses. You can see why Donald Trump started rubbishing this poll before it came out as it implies Trump,…

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Remember that Iowa, the first state to decide, has a history of springing surprises

Remember that Iowa, the first state to decide, has a history of springing surprises

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Here’s odds-on Democratic favourite Howard Dean in 2004 How will Trump cope with the caucus hurdle? We’ve got just seven weeks to wait until the first US voters start making their choices in the 2016 White House race. As has become the custom since 1972 the first state to express a choice is Iowa with its caucuses. Here, instead of going to a polling station like in the states that have full primaries, interested voters attend separate party meetings in…

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David Herdson says 2016 could be a good year for the GOP to pick a loser

David Herdson says 2016 could be a good year for the GOP to pick a loser

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The lessons of a Trump defeat would resonate for decades Only one person has set the race for next year’s GOP nomination alight and that person is Donald Trump. Behind his blaze of controversy, energy, self-publicity and populism lies a field strewn with the bewilderment of his rivals: how has he lasted so long? Why have his gaffes not brought him down? How can he be effectively taken on? As yet, they have no answers. That was painfully apparent in…

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