LAB’s one big hope is that the Tories will tear themselves apart over the EU

LAB’s one big hope is that the Tories will tear themselves apart over the EU

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What’s the post EURef blue team going to be like? The Tories have a long history of tearing themselves apart over Europe. Who can forget how in the weeks after John Major’s sensational election victory in 1992 huge fault lines started to develop in the party. It wasn’t helped by “black Wednesday” – that extraordinary day when Britain could not sustain the value of sterling on the foreign exchanges markets and the country had to leave the ERM. How lucky…

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As well as poor Corbyn leader ratings Labour has been struggling in local by-elections

As well as poor Corbyn leader ratings Labour has been struggling in local by-elections

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LAB’s performance in local by-elections since the new man came in The following, produced by Luke Akehurst for Labour List, shows “the change in Labour vote share in all the council by-elections where there has been a Labour candidate (and there was a Labour candidate in the previous contest so a comparison can be made) since the leadership election in September)” Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

Latest ICM EURef tracker edges to REMAIN in line with other recent polling

Latest ICM EURef tracker edges to REMAIN in line with other recent polling

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In what’s likely to be the last EURef poll of 2015 ICM online reports an increase in the REMAIN lead from 1% a week ago to 7% now. This is the same direction that we’ve seen in all EURef polls over past week. One of the great rules of polling analysis is that whenever possible you shouldn’t treat one poll on its own. How does the trend compare with others with fieldwork at about the same time? What’s the general…

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With perhaps just 6 months before EURef most people it seems don’t give a damn about the EU

With perhaps just 6 months before EURef most people it seems don’t give a damn about the EU

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Just 1% tell Ipsos MORI that EU most important issue facing the country With perhaps only months to go before Britain votes on whether or not to remain in the EU the latest Ipsos MORI Issues Index shows that those thinking this is Britain’s biggest issue is just 1%. Another 4% named it as one the other issues facing the country but that only makes a paltry 5%. You’d have thought that with all the effort going into to the…

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While latest polling might not be good for Corbyn it also raises questions over Osborne

While latest polling might not be good for Corbyn it also raises questions over Osborne

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@MSmithsonPB If 38% of Con voters can't answer a question like that in Osborne's favour he's fucked. — ForgottenGenius (@ExStrategist) December 21, 2015 The problem Osborne’s got is the party’s electoral system that was devised by William Hague during his 1997-2001 period as leader. Basically there is an exhaustive ballot of MPs to choose two of their number whose names will go forward to the membership in a secret postal ballot. Given that so many of the blue team at…

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This is the sort of leadership polling that’ll be seized on by Corbyn’s Labour opponents

This is the sort of leadership polling that’ll be seized on by Corbyn’s Labour opponents

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Why Opinium’s switched from approval ratings to favourability @MSmithsonPB mainly to counter the fact that all my Tory-supporting colleagues strongly approve of the job he's doing — Adam Drummond (@AGKD123) December 20, 2015 If leader ratings really are the best electoral pointer then CON looks set to be in power until at least May 2025 From where I stand there are two ways that Corbyn could be brought down. The first is a growing realisation from polling and elections results…

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Pulpstar on the Republican Nomination

Pulpstar on the Republican Nomination

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The GOP race for the White House is utterly fascinating, and represents a proper betting contest rather than the 1-10 shot Hilary Clinton is in the Democrat race. I look on as an outsider, with no particular knowledge of US politics outside of resources available to anyone else – Wikipedia, 538 and real clear politics. How should we start to analyse such an interesting contest – well past performance is no guarantee to the future, but there are quite a…

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