This is the sort of leadership polling that’ll be seized on by Corbyn’s Labour opponents

This is the sort of leadership polling that’ll be seized on by Corbyn’s Labour opponents

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Why Opinium’s switched from approval ratings to favourability @MSmithsonPB mainly to counter the fact that all my Tory-supporting colleagues strongly approve of the job he's doing — Adam Drummond (@AGKD123) December 20, 2015 If leader ratings really are the best electoral pointer then CON looks set to be in power until at least May 2025 From where I stand there are two ways that Corbyn could be brought down. The first is a growing realisation from polling and elections results…

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Pulpstar on the Republican Nomination

Pulpstar on the Republican Nomination

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The GOP race for the White House is utterly fascinating, and represents a proper betting contest rather than the 1-10 shot Hilary Clinton is in the Democrat race. I look on as an outsider, with no particular knowledge of US politics outside of resources available to anyone else – Wikipedia, 538 and real clear politics. How should we start to analyse such an interesting contest – well past performance is no guarantee to the future, but there are quite a…

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Immigration might be the most important issue facing the country but it isn’t the only issue

Immigration might be the most important issue facing the country but it isn’t the only issue

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If UKIP and Leave want to make further progress and win the referendum they need to talk about things other than immigration. We see in the Ipsos Mori issues index (and in other polling) on a regular and consistent basis immigration/immigrants as the most important issue facing the UK yet if immigration/immigrants really was the most important issue then UKIP would have picked up more than one seat in May as David Cameron’s spectacular failure to cut net immigration in the…

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The GE2015 polls weren’t wrong – we were just looking at the wrong numbers

The GE2015 polls weren’t wrong – we were just looking at the wrong numbers

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Leader ratings have proved a far better guide to election outcomes A month today, on January 19th, the investigation into what went wrong with the general election polling will be announcing its findings at a special event in London. No doubt all sorts of tweaks will come out of it but the main factor. I’d argue, is that we (and I include myself in that) paid far far too much attention to the voting intention numbers. In almost every case…

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There could be only six months of EURef campaigning left before Britain decides

There could be only six months of EURef campaigning left before Britain decides

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Big news from the EU talks is that the referendum might be just 6 months away https://t.co/QNPB9pc8nC pic.twitter.com/L0v0Ilt0CC — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 19, 2015 Cameron says he’s “on the way to a deal” It has been known for sometime that Dave/George want to get the referendum out of the way as soon as possible and overnight the news from the Brussels talks is that the favoured timing could be June or July. The last thing ministers want is for…

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Corbyn supporters are a broad church. Labour MPs worried that he is leading them to defeat need to engage with their new members.

Corbyn supporters are a broad church. Labour MPs worried that he is leading them to defeat need to engage with their new members.

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The Donald Brind column: From a Labour perspective “I learned long ago, never to wrestle with a pig. You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it.” – George Bernard Shaw. The Shavian quote was offered to me by the wise and erudite Lewis Baston after I recounted to him a Twitter spat with blogger Dan Hodges. For the avoidance of doubt, Hodges, who hails from a Labour family but earns his living from the Telegraph and the Spectator, is…

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If it’s Farage versus Carswell then there can only be one outcome – the current leader will win

If it’s Farage versus Carswell then there can only be one outcome – the current leader will win

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Just 15 months ago – happier days for Mr Farage and Mr Carswell pic.twitter.com/HMdFTxPvsZ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 18, 2015 Nigel Farage on Douglas Carswell: "We have got one person going round the country giving the impression UKIP is split – that can’t go on." — Steve Hawkes (@steve_hawkes) December 18, 2015 UKIP could be about to become a ZERO MPs party The morning has been dominated by Douglas Carswell’s comments in a BBC interview about his leader, Nigel…

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The PB/Polling Matters Christmas Special Podcast – Part 1

The PB/Polling Matters Christmas Special Podcast – Part 1

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The lessons from 2015 In part one of a two-part Christmas special Keiran is joined by Matt Singh and Rob Vance to look back at the year that was 2015 and discuss what Polling Matters has learned along the way. Key areas discussed include: 1) Where the polls went wrong and the impact polling had on the General Election. 2) Why Keiran thinks developments in Scotland are the big story of the year 3) Why do governments change so infrequently…

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