British politics 2016 in one word: Europe

British politics 2016 in one word: Europe

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One issue; three interlinking components Can 2016 live up to the excitement that last year gave us? Remarkably, it could. Internationally, the extremely interesting year-long elections in the US may well produce the first female president of the United States (albeit the wife of a former president), and if not, could well put an untested populist with no political experience in the White House. But in Britain, one issue is likely to dominate: the European referendum on David Cameron’s deal…

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Tim Montgomerie’s right: Current government policy decisions are driven by need not to be unpopular on EURef day

Tim Montgomerie’s right: Current government policy decisions are driven by need not to be unpopular on EURef day

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Airport delay. Tax cred Uturn. Slower cuts… Me for @CapX on No10's pre-referendum campaign https://t.co/mXTlrvH2nz pic.twitter.com/xkRM6je9xo — Tim Montgomerie ?? (@montie) January 1, 2016 Everything for the next few months is about the EU vote One of the great problems with referenda is that by the time we get to polling day the issue might have moved on from the issue on the ballot paper to a vote of confidence in the incumbent government. Arguably the AV vote in 2011…

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As the New Year rolls in Alastair Meeks makes his predictions

As the New Year rolls in Alastair Meeks makes his predictions

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2016: Things that mostly won’t happen Making predictions is a mug’s game as I showed in my last post.  So I shall now prove that I have not learned from experience and have another go. To understand where we are going, we first need to understand where we are now.  Politics has changed out of all recognition since the general election.  Let’s sum up the essentials: We have a Conservative government with a tiny overall majority. We have a Labour…

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Star War images: Jedi Jezza and Stormtrooper Osbo

Star War images: Jedi Jezza and Stormtrooper Osbo

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The Donald Brind column – from a Labour perspective An old joke was given fresh legs just before Christmas when George Osborne set out to sprinkle some stardust on his image with an appearance at the premiere of Star Wars. Q. Why did 4,000 people boo George Osborne? A. Because that’s how many the cinema holds. In the original version it was the 80,000 capacity of the Olympic stadium that limited the opprobrium heaped on the Chancellor during the 2012…

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All the pollsters finding that current LAB voters reluctant to give Corbyn their full backing

All the pollsters finding that current LAB voters reluctant to give Corbyn their full backing

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Corbyn has got the Ed Miliband problem Looking back over GE2015 polls what should have raised questions about the voting intention findings was that in all the leader ratings of different forms Ed Miliband was always a long way behind Cameron. I made that mistake. People are voting for a Prime Minister and their view of the contenders is, as I’ve argued, a much better pointer to election outcomes than their party choice where the polls have failed twice in…

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Local By-Election Review 2015 : Part One

Local By-Election Review 2015 : Part One

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Running before the Storm : Before the General Election (24 local by-elections) It was fairly obvious as soon as Big Ben chimed midnight ushering in the arrival of 2015 that everyone’s mind would instantly focus on the general election (indeed some of the parties started campaigning almost immediately the Christmas decorations came down) but local by-elections are no respecter of national campaigns and within days of those decorations coming down the local by-election circus started up again in Bolsover where…

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How much should those with 33/1 Sadiq Khan vouchers cover themselves on a Zac victory?

How much should those with 33/1 Sadiq Khan vouchers cover themselves on a Zac victory?

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A betting position that’s very nice to be in Back in March 2013 Henry G Manson gave what might prove to be one of the best ever political betting tips here when he said get on Sadiq Khan, then at 33/1, for next London Mayor. At the time other Labour figures were seen as having better chances of being selected as candidate for the next Mayoral election. Henry G, with his great knowledge of how LAB works, thought differently and…

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Alastair Meeks compares his predictions for 2015 with what actually happened

Alastair Meeks compares his predictions for 2015 with what actually happened

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2015 – the past is a country of which I knew little Every year I sit down at Christmas and try to work out what will happen in the following twelve months.  I do this not because I have any great confidence in my predictive power – as you’re about to see, that would be an illustration of the Dunning-Kruger effect – but because it is useful to have a record of what I thought might be going to happen…

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