YouGov has LEAVE lead up to 9% in survey taken immediately after this week’s key referendum talks

YouGov has LEAVE lead up to 9% in survey taken immediately after this week’s key referendum talks

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On Betfair REMAIN drops a notch to a 66.7% chance So far in the referendum campaign members of the YouGov have been tending to be more in favour of BREXIT than those most other online firms and certainly there’s a massive gap between YouGov and the EURef phone polls. However the events of this week and the coverage they’ve been getting have not been good for Cameron’s position on the vote that is reported to be being planned for June…

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Tonight’s local by-election line-up: 3 CON defences and a LAB one

Tonight’s local by-election line-up: 3 CON defences and a LAB one

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Bottisham (Con defence) on East Cambridgeshire Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 36, Liberal Democrats 2, Independent 1 (Conservative majority of 33) Result of ward at last election (2015) : Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives 1,100, 1,002 (52%) Liberal Democrats 678, 634 (32%) Labour 347, 339 (16%) Candidates duly nominated: Steven Aronson (Lib Dem), Daniel Divine (UKIP), Steven O’Dell (Lab), Alan Sharp (Con) East Cambridgeshire is the essence of what has been happening to the Liberal Democrats since 2003…

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Those who actually vote are getting older and this has big political implications

Those who actually vote are getting older and this has big political implications

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New report warns that policies will be even more geared to the oldies The chart above is from the Intergenerational Fairness Foundation (IF) a think tank researches fairness between generations. It believes “that, while increasing longevity is welcome, government policy must be fair to all generations – old, young or those to come.” As a result of medical advances and having healthier lifestyles we are living longer. This combined with a far lower participation level in the political process amongst…

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We can’t assume that the Donald is out of it yet

We can’t assume that the Donald is out of it yet

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. @ppppolls reporting that 1st day of fieldwork for their next GOP national nomination poll finds support for Trump slipping sharply — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 3, 2016 On Monday Trump was a 50% shot on Betfair to be Republican nominee. That's now 23.5% pic.twitter.com/4wKemLtmsS — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 3, 2016 The US pollster Public Policy Polling has a welcome practice of sending out Tweets like the one above to indicate significant trends in surveys some time before the…

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The EURef campaign looks set to come down to Cameron versus the Tory press

The EURef campaign looks set to come down to Cameron versus the Tory press

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Can Dave really win the argument in the face of this? Thanks to Guido for his collage of today’s front pages of the Tory papers following the negotiations on Britain’s future relationship with the EU. This must be the worst set of front pages for Cameron since the media turned on him in July 2007 at the start of Gordon Brown’s honeymoon as Prime Minister. Then the following two months became a nightmare and in September his Ipsos-MORI ratings dropped…

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As well as a unique hair-style Trump has another thing in common with Boris – being overstated in the polls

As well as a unique hair-style Trump has another thing in common with Boris – being overstated in the polls

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Real Clear Politics All but one of the Iowa pollsters had inflated Trump numbers: All had deflated ones for Cruz and Rubio One of the things that I’ve written about before here is that Boris gets over-stated by the polls when tested against real election results. It happened to quite a degree at the last London mayoral election and we saw a similar pattern overnight in the results from Iowa. The table above from Real Clear Politics sets the data…

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