David Cameron’s popularity – the reason why we are having an EU referendum and the reason why LEAVE is likely to lose

David Cameron’s popularity – the reason why we are having an EU referendum and the reason why LEAVE is likely to lose

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The reason, of course, why we are having an EU referendum is that the Conservatives had such a stunning and surprise victory in the general election. One of the key factors in that, I would argue, is the personality and popularity of David Cameron himself. Without the “Cameron premium” then it’s likely that the Tories would not be in power and able to decide. Just look at the polling above which was taken just before the general election. This is…

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In the past 6 weeks EU referendum polls have ranged from a 3% LEAVE lead to a 19% REMAIN one

In the past 6 weeks EU referendum polls have ranged from a 3% LEAVE lead to a 19% REMAIN one

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Looking at the numbers on the day the REMAIN campaign launches The chart above is based on the difference between the REMAIN and LEAVE figures, before netting off the don’t knows, in all the EU referendum polls since the beginning of September. What is absolutely extraordinary is the sheer range of findings. These run from a LEAVE lead of 3% to a REMAIN one of 19%. Why this should be is very difficult to understand. It might just reflect that…

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It would be a mistake for Sadiq Khan to attack Zac Goldsmith’s out of touchness

It would be a mistake for Sadiq Khan to attack Zac Goldsmith’s out of touchness

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YouGov have published their latest polling on the London Mayoral race, YouGov say What’s remarkable is just how evenly matched [Khan and Goldsmith] are, right down to the different aspects of their personality. Likeable? Its 41%/41%.  Good in a crisis? 26%/27%. Up to the job of Mayor? 38%/39%. There’s only one area where you start to see a major difference – whether the two men are ‘in touch with ordinary people’. 41% think Mr Khan is, compared to only 18%…

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Rose might front Remain but he won’t lead it

Rose might front Remain but he won’t lead it

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Tory Peer & former M&S boss Lord Rose to lead the campaign to keep the UK in the EU. http://t.co/GSlsdgM8fC pic.twitter.com/4SNafUiYVl — TSE (@TSEofPB) October 10, 2015 Amateurs playing at politics will get swept aside by the professionals Politicians are not popular; not now and rarely ever. The bickering, the pettiness, the game-playing, the dirt thrown – much of which sticks to some extent, including to the hands throwing it – the actual policies proposed or implemented, the negative characteristics…

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The latest Politicalbetting/Polling Matters podcast: Conservative Conference special

The latest Politicalbetting/Polling Matters podcast: Conservative Conference special

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Keiran Pedley talks to Asa Bennett of the Telegraph and Rob Vance Polling Matters is back and Keiran discusses the Tory Party conference with Asa Bennett of the Telegraph and Rob Vance. Just how strong are the Conservatives right now? Who succeeds David Cameron? And what will the London Mayoral race tell us about the wider political situation in Westminster in the longer term?

Antifrank says Corbyn’s strategy is – “We only have to be lucky once”

Antifrank says Corbyn’s strategy is – “We only have to be lucky once”

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Few political leaders can have made such an immediate impact as Jeremy Corbyn.  Much of that impact has generated bemusement and hostility.  His actions suggest a man who has quite different aims from a conventional leader.  In his speeches since he has been elected, he has not mentioned Labour’s election defeat.  He has not courted the media.  He has not made an appeal to floating voters.  And as I have previously noted, he has shown no interest in the formal…

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SNP lose seat to LDs who lose to CON – all the latest local by election results

SNP lose seat to LDs who lose to CON – all the latest local by election results

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How one of Scotland's leading political sites reported the SNP loss of a by-election in the Highlands pic.twitter.com/9VNpteamEL — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 9, 2015 Bolsover South on Bolsover (Lab defence) Result: Labour 232 (43%), United Kingdom Independence Party 127 (23%), Conservative 109 (20%), Trade Unionist and Socialist 78 (14%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 105 (20%) Aird and Loch Ness on Highland (SNP defence) Result: Liberal Democrat 1,029 (33% +21%), Scottish National Party 1,000 (33% +5%), Conservatives 467…

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