All the New Hampshire polls have Trump ahead in the GOP race. 2nd place is a different story… pic.twitter.com/qDgeBeCGs8
— Jonathan Jones (@J_I_Jones) February 9, 2016
It’s primary election day in New Hampshire – the first full one of the 2016 campaign and the big developments over the past 24 hours have been on the Governor of Ohio John Kasich.
He made an early decision to focus all his early effort on New Hampshire and judging by the polling has been having a big impact. He was running neck and neck with Rubio to be the main GOP alternative to Trump and that looks set to be even more the case. The talk out of his camp that he could secure second place.
What makes New Hampshire so difficult to call, as is being repeatedly said, is that it has a history of independents and supporters of other parties switching on the day not just to different candidate but to which primary they cast their votes in.
One scenario that’s being discussed is that in order to impede Trump there could be cross-overs to the GOP election the only question being which of the contenders is perceived to be in the best position.
This could impact on the Democratic primary where Bernie Sanders looks solid. Some of his supporters might feel that it is safe switch to the GOP election and Kasich could well be their choice.
Ladbrokes make him favourite to be the leading non-Trump contender in the state.