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On Monday it is the first event of WH2024 starting as usual with the Iowa caucuses. Inevitably, the terrible weather that the state is going through will likely impact the outcome. There’ve been fierce blizzards and heavy snowfalls. Many roads have been blocked and it’s hard to see this not having an impact on the outcome. Mancy eve of campaign events have been cancelled. My guess is that unless things improve rapidly the turnout level will be hit. Caucuses require…

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“In order to save space the word esquire has not been added to any name, though of course such should be added in every ease when no inconsistent addition is affixed.” – Kelly’s Handbook to the Upper Ten Thousand, 1875 In the ages before universal suffrage, it was assumed that society was run by an aristocracy. There was a certain flexibility in the British version of this. One could rise (within certain limits) – medicine, science and industry allowed commoners…

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The announcement of a law to overturn the subpostmasters’ convictions has provoked some concern amongst m’learned friends, on constitutional grounds. Are these valid? Why is the government in this position? The dilemma: if every convicted subpostmaster in the last 25 years applied to the Criminal Cases Review Commission (“CCRC“) to have their convictions reviewed and referred to the Court of Appeal, even if they started tomorrow, it would taken an inordinately long time to deal with them, even if the…

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Christie pulls out – a boost for Haley? Just 4 days to go before the first set piece of this year’s White House when the opening salvos and first actual voting are in Iowa with its caucuses. This time there will only be a Republican Party caucus while the Democrats contest will take place in about six weeks. The Iowa caucuses are a very difficult election to assess and there have been several instances in the past of the betting…

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I am glad I live in the United Kingdom where we have an orderly changes of government and no Second Amendment. TSE

Could she beat Trump in the New Hampshire primary? The only WH2024 bet I have placed has been on Nikki Haley to beat Trump in the first proper primary in New Hampshire towards the end of the month. She appears to be running the best campaign as doubts about Trump increase by the day. This latest poll is no surprise given Trump’s legal problems. One thing that might help her is that Democratic voters who are totally opposed to Trump…

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Even though 2024 is likely to be the UK election year the US Presidential election is likely to be the biggest political betting event. Currently, it is looking as though it will be a repeat of WH2020 with Trump and Biden the contenders. I think both of them are far too old but I cannot see any change. If Trump was to step aside then you could envisage Biden pulling out in the spring. Mike Smithson

TSE