Professor Michael Thrasher introduces The Elections Centre

Professor Michael Thrasher introduces The Elections Centre

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Google   When Rallings and Thrasher established the Elections Centre in the early 1980s the principal aim was to collect and publish local election results in the same way that F.W.S. Craig was covering the parliamentary equivalent. In establishing the website, www.electionscentre.co.uk, the aim is to provide easier access for a wide variety of users to the huge amount of data compiled over the intervening years. Many readers of Political Betting will already be acquainted with the site but a glimpse of future plans can…

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As doctors stage their 3rd strike Ipsos-MORI finds that they are still getting strong public support

As doctors stage their 3rd strike Ipsos-MORI finds that they are still getting strong public support

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57% blame the Government 11% the doctors With thousands of operations being cancelled because of the latest doctors strike public support for them is as high as it was for the first two strikes in January and February, according to new polling from Ipsos MORI. The survey of adults in England finds the same proportion (65%) supporting junior doctors strikes as for the previous round of action in February (66%) – as long as emergency care is provided. Opposition to…

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Trump & Boris: Both blond, both born in New York and both under-perform in the polls

Trump & Boris: Both blond, both born in New York and both under-perform in the polls

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There’s a interesting post tonight by Ron Faucheux on the US site The Hill highlighting the fact that in recent primaries Donald Trump has been doing worse than the polling. He writes: ” A comparison of pre-primary polls to the actual ballots cast on March 1 showed clear evidence of Trump’s eleventh-hour slippage: The last two polls taken in Virginia gave Trump an average 14 percentage point lead. On primary day, he won by a mere 3 points. The last…

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Opinium London Mayoral boost for those who took the 33/1 PB Sadiq Khan tip

Opinium London Mayoral boost for those who took the 33/1 PB Sadiq Khan tip

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Back in March 2013 Henry G Manson wrote a post here suggesting that Sadiq Khan, then 33/1, was a good value bet for London Mayor. He argued that the then LAB shadow minister for London was in a strong position to secure the nomination – and so it turned out. Amazingly, given that May 5th is not that far away we’d seen, until today, just one London Mayoral poll and that was in early January. Well that’s changed with a…

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More polling’s due out on Corbyn’s failure with the most crucial voting group of all – older women

More polling’s due out on Corbyn’s failure with the most crucial voting group of all – older women

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Why Corbyn could be an even bigger loser than the headline figures suggest A gender problem for Corbyn? Far fewer women tell YouGov that he should lead LAB at GE2020 than men pic.twitter.com/TObsy7ibLU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 7, 2016 And the problem is most dramatic with older women – see my piece for @ayeshahazarika 's @ProgressOnline out soon https://t.co/2ObL5dRZqI — Deborah Mattinson (@debmattinson) March 8, 2016 Last night I Tweeted the above panel from new YouGov polling. It shows…

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The EURef betting numbers remain solid for IN

The EURef betting numbers remain solid for IN

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Scroll down for charts and more data The above graphic created by Michael Dent is updated every 20 minutes and show the latest Betfair betting price on the June 23rd EU referendum. The default position is to show odds as a percentage but punters might like to click the DEC odds tab, What is striking is how little variation there has been which, of course, is a broad reflection of the polling. The March round of phone polls could make…

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The blue on blue fight is making the EURef seem like an all-CON affair and that could impact on turnout

The blue on blue fight is making the EURef seem like an all-CON affair and that could impact on turnout

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Donald Brind on the turnout worries within the Labour IN Campaign Senior women in the Labour party are becoming increasingly concerned that the EU referendum could be lost because women stay away from the polls on June 23rd. They see a campaign dominated by male voices and polluted by noise from the increasingly vicious Blue on Blue attacks. Labour pro-Europeans fear the arcane battle within the Tory tribe will depress interest in the campaign among Labour voters and especially among…

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