After the latest Trump-Cruz blow-up David Herdson suggests a 50/1 punt on Kasich

After the latest Trump-Cruz blow-up David Herdson suggests a 50/1 punt on Kasich

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He could be the only one who can stop Trump It’s probably all over: the sex scandal now engulfing Ted Cruz means that Donald Trump is highly likely to be the Republicans’ nominee for president. Highly likely but not certain. The dilemmas of the Never Trump brigade as to what strategy to adopt in order to stop him have their answer; there’s only one possible. They must get behind John Kasich as soon as possible in order to deny Trump…

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Read all about it. The news sources that matter nowadays

Read all about it. The news sources that matter nowadays

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Alastair Meeks on the media influence on the EU referendum The EU referendum has turned into a battle between the Prime Minister and the right-leaning newspapers.  In 1992 the Sun hubristically claimed to have be the one wot won it.  Will it be the Mail wot wins the EU referendum for Leave in 2016? The world has changed in a generation.  In 1992, five daily newspapers sold more than a million copies and the top twelve biggest selling daily newspapers…

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ICM referendum findings suggest that turnout won’t be at general election levels

ICM referendum findings suggest that turnout won’t be at general election levels

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This could be good news for LEAVE The latest ICM poll includes for the first time turnout weighting and points to two broad conclusions: that outers are more determined to vote than inners and that the overall participation level will be lower than the 66.1% that we saw at the general election in May 2015. Before applying the turnout filter but after excluding the “certain not to vote” the latest survey, carried out after the Brussels attacks, had 43% REMAIN,…

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Local By-Election Preview : March 24th 2016 (Maundy Thursday)

Local By-Election Preview : March 24th 2016 (Maundy Thursday)

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Dalton (Con defence) and Moss Bay (Lab defence) on Allerdale Result of council at last election (2015): Labour 29, Conservatives 17, Independents 7, United Kingdom Independence Party 3 (Labour majority of 2) Result of wards at last election (2015) Dalton Conservative 510 (48%), Liberal Democrat 226 (21%), Green Party 168 (16%), United Kingdom Independence Party 153 (15%) Candidates duly nominated: Eric Atkinson (United Kingdom Independence Party), Flic Crowley (Green Party), Marion Fitzgerald (Ind), Ross Hayman (Lab), Mike Johnson (Con) Moss…

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Survation EURef phone poll follows ComRes and has reduced though still clear REMAIN lead

Survation EURef phone poll follows ComRes and has reduced though still clear REMAIN lead

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Survation chart showing latest phone poll wit reduced REMAIN lead pic.twitter.com/X9LdJeDkw0 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 24, 2016 LAB get much closer with Ipsos Chart showing full voting intention data from today's @IpsosMORI phone pollLDs in double figures pic.twitter.com/ZLmdqFMl02 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 24, 2016 Corbyn overtakes Cameron in the Ipsos leader ratings Corbyn & Farage big gainers in latest Ipsos satisfaction ratings. Cameron the big loser well behind LAB leader pic.twitter.com/NcmDCs90Mq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 24, 2016

The New Zealand flag referendum goes strongly for the status quo: A pointer for EURef

The New Zealand flag referendum goes strongly for the status quo: A pointer for EURef

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Another referendum where the status quo wins. New Zealand votes to keep current flag. Implications for BREXIT? https://t.co/1nrhu8EwYp — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 24, 2016 One of the massive challenges for LEAVE is that there’s a strong history in elections from many countries of the status quo prevailing. We saw that in Scotland in September 2014 as well as in the UK EC referendum of 1975. We have also seen it to a very striking degree when voters in English…

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This week’s PB/Polling Matters TV Show on Trump, Brussels, Osborne and that LAB poll lead

This week’s PB/Polling Matters TV Show on Trump, Brussels, Osborne and that LAB poll lead

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Serious political conversation for those seriously interested in politics After a week dominated by the tragedy in Brussels the PB/PM TV team look at the political impact of that as well as Trump’s growing haul of delegates, Osborne and that unique polling event – the Labour polling lead. As ever the show is also available as an audio podcast version Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

REMAIN lead drops to lowest level yet in ComRes phone poll for ITV

REMAIN lead drops to lowest level yet in ComRes phone poll for ITV

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The ComRes press release states: Remain” leads “Leave” by seven points according to the latest ComRes poll for ITV News (fieldwork conducted over the weekend, before the events in Brussels). The seven point lead is the lowest recorded in a ComRes telephone poll since the General Election, however, it is in line with the eight point lead in the February ComRes / ITV News poll (although another ComRes poll for the Daily Mail had shown the Remain lead rising to…

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