The Republican nomination The June 23rd EU Referendum Winner London Mayoral Election May 2016 These odds are live but you can find out historical position by taking your cursor across the charts. After today’s ComRes 10% Khan lead in London it is not wonder that the Labour man is an 85% shot but I do wonder whether the Lynton Crosby Tory campaign might have some aces up their sleeves for the final month. The referendum betting has surprised me. I’d…
Prof Colin Rallings with his 2016 local elections prediction pic.twitter.com/Pl6W0871Bn — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 5, 2016 Rallings & Thrasher National Equivalent Vote share for May elections CON 33LAB 30LD 16UKIP 12 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 5, 2016 Today it’s been the annual local elections briefing hosted by the Political Studies Association. As per usual Profs Rallings and Thrasher announced their predictions based on party performances in local by elections which take place almost every week. They have a…
As Wisconsin goes to the polls, it’s Ted Cruz (and not Paul Ryan) that the GOP must unite behind if they want to stop Donald Trump says Keiran Pedley It’s fair to say that Wisconsin occupies something of an odd place on the GOP primary calendar in 2016. If it feels like a long time since Republican voters have been to the polls that’s because it has been. By the time that Wisconsin votes this week, it will have been…
From Politico on Paul Ryanhttps://t.co/gin0uviXsg pic.twitter.com/K0O8T76VvX — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 4, 2016 Paul Ryan setting himself up for nomination? Via @nowthisnewsHe admits he was wrong about people living in povertyhttps://t.co/VfLtBmCVZJ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 4, 2016
The nation’s politicians are consumed by the referendum debate. 23 June is seen as a momentous day. But politics will not stop on 24 June. Who has the campaign benefited so far? And, just as interestingly, who is on the wane? A Good Campaign Jeremy Corbyn. Simply by doing not very much, he has found that the heat has come off him to a large extent. The public is being reminded that Labour is not the only divided party and…
Donald Brind on the Ed Sec’s big gamble Nicky Morgan reckons she has what it takes to be Tory leader. She put her name on the board last October and followed it up with a declaration in February that it would be “a big mistake if Tory members were offered a choice between “two white menâ€, when David Cameron steps down. Her dream is in desperate need of a boost. In last month’s Conservative Home survey of leadership contenders she…
In 2010, Britain was being wrestled over by two parties competing to portray themselves to the public as the natural party of government. Â In his first conference speech, David Cameron returned repeatedly to the theme of “substance”. Â He told his party: “Real substance is about taking time to think things through, not trotting out easy answers that people might want to hear. Â It’s about sticking to your guns. Â It’s about character, judgement, and consistency. Â It’s about policy, yes. Â But it’s…
Will Trump rise to the occasion? Betting on the Republican nominee and related markets has been a mix of the interesting, surreal and downright bizarre. The betting overreaction to Marco Rubio finishing third in Iowa and becoming the favourite for the nomination was a particular highlight and profitable for many. But the GOP nomination contest has been marked by a certain viciousness between the candidates, with Donald Trump giving Ted Cruz the epithet Lyin’ Ted Cruz, whilst the cherry on…