The May elections less than 4 weeks away – Why so few Tories are raising their voices against Cameron

The May elections less than 4 weeks away – Why so few Tories are raising their voices against Cameron

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From Profs Rallings & Thrasher – council seats up for election on May 5th pic.twitter.com/kMvXF0HZhc — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 8, 2016 From Profs Rallings & Thrasher – projection of seat gains & losses for May 5th local elections pic.twitter.com/J1OiRK5Wm9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 8, 2016 On May 5th more than 2,000 Conservatives will be putting themselves forward as candidates for local councils, the Scottish and Welsh parliaments, the London Assembly as well as for police commissioners in every…

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Why I’m not tempted by the 3/1 bet that Cameron will be out this year

Why I’m not tempted by the 3/1 bet that Cameron will be out this year

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He’s at his best when his back is against the wall As a reaction to Cameron’s dramatic admission on his family offshore investments last night in the interview with Robert Peston several bookies starting offering odds on him failing to survive the year as prime minister. Both Ladbrokes and William Hill are making this a 3/1 chance. Given the nature of the way the information eventually came out bit by bit there is no doubt that the prime minister has…

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Local By-Election Preview : April 7th 2016

Local By-Election Preview : April 7th 2016

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Ynysddu (Lab defence) on Caerphilly Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 50, Plaid Cymru 20, Independents 3 (Labour majority of 27) Result of ward at last election : Emboldened denotes elected Labour 719, 559 (64%) Plaid Cymru 382, 224 (30%) Conservatives 70, 57 (6%) Candidates duly nomninated: John Kidner (Lib Dem), Phillipa Marsden (Lab), Marina Pritchard (Plaid), Joe Smyth (UKIP) Pocklington, Provincial (Con defence) on the East Riding of Yorkshire Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives…

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If there is a “Bradley effect” in the Mayoral race it’ll have a lower impact in London than elsewhere

If there is a “Bradley effect” in the Mayoral race it’ll have a lower impact in London than elsewhere

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There has been a fair bit of talked about a possible “Bradley effect in the London mayoral election on May 5th. This refers to the well observed effect of people telling pollsters that they will support a non-white candidate when in fact they don’t end up doing so. There are two reasons to believe why this might not be significant in the London mayoral election even though the Labour candidate, Sadiq Khan,is a Muslim whose parents emigrated to Britain from…

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On tonight’s PB/Polling Matters TV Show: The fight for London and the White House Race after Wisconsin

On tonight’s PB/Polling Matters TV Show: The fight for London and the White House Race after Wisconsin

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The programme for those seriously interested in political outcomes If Labour is to have any chance of getting a good result in the May 5th elections then London is the place where it has most hopes. A victory by Sadiq Khan to re-take the Mayoralty for the party would provide a massive boost and maybe offset expected disappointments elsewhere. But will it happen. Discussing and analysing this with Keiran Pedley and myself are Tony Travers from the LSE and Martin…

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Gove pushes Boris out off the top slot in ConHome’s latest next CON leader survey

Gove pushes Boris out off the top slot in ConHome’s latest next CON leader survey

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ConHome Was the Mayor’s Brexit move a mistake? The big political betting story this lunch time is that Boris Johnson has been pushed out of the top slot in the Conservativehome survey of next.com leader preferences by Michael Gove. Boris is, of course the long-standing betting favourite to succeed David Cameron but he’s been having a bit of a rough time during the BREXIT campaign. The mayor’s flippant and seemingly arrogant approach at a recent Commons Treasury select committee session…

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The challenge for Trump gets harder after doing worse than all the polls in Wisconsin

The challenge for Trump gets harder after doing worse than all the polls in Wisconsin

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Real Clear Politics Trump drops further in nomination betting after his failure in Wisconsin by a bigger margin than the polls predicted pic.twitter.com/DxIJ7Ec2U8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 6, 2016 And another loss for Hillary In spite of a late poll showing him 10% in the lead Donald Trump was soundly beaten by Ted Cruz in the Wisconsin primary. All the delegates bar three go to Cruz. In the Democratic race Sanders chalked up another victory though because the party…

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