The referendum is currently much more about the economy than immigration

The referendum is currently much more about the economy than immigration

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If it stays that way it’s good for REMAIN Today’s been a huge one in the build up to June 23rd. The Treasury statement announced by Osborne this morning has met with a furious reaction from the LEAVE and looking at the above polling you can see why. Detail from the ComRes/Sun poll shows responses to the question about which issue will be most important to voters in making up their minds. REMAIN backers the economy is twice as important…

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Why those opposed to the Tories should hope that June 23rd fails to resolve the blue team’s #EURef schism

Why those opposed to the Tories should hope that June 23rd fails to resolve the blue team’s #EURef schism

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https://twitter.com/robson_evan/status/722035639609376768 https://twitter.com/SimonGosden/status/721759490673139712 It’s in non-CON interests for the Tory battles to go on and on A party at war is pretty sight if you are not a supporter. The way this first Monday of the official referendum campaign has gone isn’t doing the Tories any favours and it is going to go on and on. It is an extraordinary spectacle. A Conservative Chancellor sets out projections of what BREXIT could cost and we see a huge effort from fellow Tories…

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Cameron’s biggest EURef error could be diverting from Wilson’s winning 1975 template

Cameron’s biggest EURef error could be diverting from Wilson’s winning 1975 template

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A debut guest post by TC Up to the point of announcing the date of the referendum, Cameron had been following the example set by Harold Wilson.  In 1975 Wilson was faced with a split in his party and cabinet over the European EC question.  To address this problem, Wilson’s response was to have a renegotiation of our terms with the EC and then have a referendum to decide whether we remained or left.  The Wilson cabinet was also allowed…

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New ComRes phone poll has REMAIN retaining its 7% lead

New ComRes phone poll has REMAIN retaining its 7% lead

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But there’s a sharp increase in don’t knows Almost one of the constants of this campaign has been that the Inners are doing a fair bit better with phone polls than online and so the pattern continues tonight. The first phone poll to be carried out wholly in April, by ComRes for the Sun, has REMAIN maintaining its 7% lead – a gap which is very much in line with the other phone polls that we saw at the start…

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The punters at Betfair think Remain have this in the bag

The punters at Betfair think Remain have this in the bag

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    77% chance of REMAIN winning says @MattSingh_ With his accuracy at GE2015 punters take note https://t.co/wKD7ooJRHD pic.twitter.com/BXUJA9fRBy — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 17, 2016 But here’s a reminder that betting markets aren’t infallible. This time last year, Ed Miliband was odds-on favourite to be next Prime Minister. pic.twitter.com/T9eaB53Zgq — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) April 14, 2016 @MSmithsonPB About 75% of money staked on elections happens in the last 4 weeks, even if the markets have been running for years. —…

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The perceptions on the Tories and Labour

The perceptions on the Tories and Labour

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YouGov have published some polling, conducted within the last week on which groups the voters identify the Tory Party and the Labour Party with. The findings aren’t that surprising. The Tories are perceived to be really close to the rich, businessmen/The City, and voters in the south. Whilst Labour are seen as being really close to trade unions, the working class, and benefit claimants. The most interesting finding from this polling was that the Tories are seen as being not…

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CON voters give Dave a net 24% lead over Boris on whose EU statements/claims are trusted

CON voters give Dave a net 24% lead over Boris on whose EU statements/claims are trusted

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Why LEAVE has to undermine the PM It is said, though I have no independent verification, that the Lynton Crosby analysis of the referendum is that the outers have to totally undermine Cameron’s reputation if they are to have a chance. With Corbyn now coming off the fence which should encourage the Labour IN vote current CON voters are a major battleground between IN and OUT. The polls vary but all have LEAVE ahead amongst this voting segment but the…

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Time to bet against the Donald

Time to bet against the Donald

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Trump’s amateur approach is costing him the election Back in October, I tipped Ted Cruz for the Republican nomination as a trading bet. As always with such bets, the trick is trading out at the right time. So with Cruz now at less than 2/1 across the board, when is that time? The simple answer is ‘not yet’. In a normal year, a candidate in Trump’s position would have the nomination near-enough sown up. Although he’ll probably fall short of…

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