My Bloomberg programme on BREXIT and political betting
Even if you're at all interested in the art of betting on politics, listen to our interview with @MSmithsonPB https://t.co/JRLISl99kS — Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) May 2, 2016
At GE2015 the big picture from online polls was that LAB was leading but CON was well ahead in phone surveys
A pointer to EURef polling? With the huge split between online and phone polls that we are seeing for the referendum it is perhaps worth reminding ourselves how the two modes did during the official GE2015 campaign period. The chart could not be more clear. Throughout the campaign the big picture from phone polls was that the Tories had the edge while with internet polls it was Labour. We should note that being lumped in with all the other online…
If Zac loses London and the Brexiters fail it will say a lot about the declining influence of the press
If the London mayoral race and the BREXIT referendum go according to the betting then it will be very much against what most of the press has been promoting. The Sadiq Khan campaign for the Mayoralty has to overcome a strong media bias in favour of Zac Goldsmith. The above from yesterday’s Mail on Sunday is typical. The capital’s main newspaper, the Standard, has been very anti-Khan and has been more than willing to echo the Goldsmith campaign efforts to…
Greater love hath no man than this, that he lay down his friends for his life
These don’t appear to be the actions of a PM confident of winning the referendum Senior Cameron aide asked rebels at Tory away day if moving Osborne would "save PM" in the event of a Brexit vote. See Sunday Times — Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) April 30, 2016 Typo alert – The below tweet I think he means Foreign Sec, I hope Tory whip has also been asking Eurosceptics whether moving Osborne to foreign sex would help calm civil war. —…
From Blair to Corbyn, Livingstone, and Hitler, 19 years is a long time in politics
Just a reminder how good embittered Blairites are at winning general elections for Labour. Corbynistas take note pic.twitter.com/tEFDUCfVf1 — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 1, 2016 Can things only get better for Labour? Not whilst the stench of anti-Semitism swirls around the party Nineteen years ago today, Tony Blair led the Labour Party back into government after eighteen years in opposition. 418 MPs elected, 145 gains, and a 179 seat majority. The way Labour and Corbyn are heading, they will be lucky…
It’s the economy, stupid
If Leave wants to win they need to show that Brexit is the better option for the economy and the financial wellbeing of voters. We’ve been here before. We see the headline voting intention figures showing it neck and neck, yet the supplementaries on the economy show one side extending their clear lead further. Looking at the above supplementary questions from this week’s YouGov poll that showed Leave ahead by 1%, this referendum campaign, with the supplementaries showing more and more…
Opinum has EURef outcome for maximum chaos: England & Wales vote OUT but Scotland means it’s overall for IN
Opinium #EURef poll national splits ENGLAND 41% to 43% to OUT WALES 35% to 42% to OUT SCOTLAND 51% to 34% IN OVERALL 42% to 41% to IN Tonight’s Opinium poll has a projected outcome which, if it happened, would create the most massive post-June 23rd eruptions – a narrow IN win but with England and Wales voting OUT. The national region splits are above. How wonderful for political anoraks to have such an outcome. We must remember Northern Ireland…
Focus on Scotland in a PB/Polling Matters TV show special
Thursday’s Holyrood elections, Labour struggles, Brexit and the possibility of Indyref2 Keiran Pedley is joined in the studio by Kate Devlin from the Herald and Craig McAngus of the University of Aberdeen. They discuss the upcoming Scottish Parliament elections and why the SNP is so popular, why Labour is struggling, the upcoming EU referendum and prospects for a second independence referendum. The audio podcast version Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet