At GE2015 the big picture from online polls was that LAB was leading but CON was well ahead in phone surveys
A pointer to EURef polling?
With the huge split between online and phone polls that we are seeing for the referendum it is perhaps worth reminding ourselves how the two modes did during the official GE2015 campaign period.
The chart could not be more clear. Throughout the campaign the big picture from phone polls was that the Tories had the edge while with internet polls it was Labour.
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We should note that being lumped in with all the other online firms is unfair to Opinium. All but one of its GE2015 polls recorded CON leads and the other one had it as level–pegging. Amongst the latest batch of EURef polls Opinium is one of just two online firms to have IN ahead.
A guide to June 23rd? Maybe. It is interesting the punters seem more influenced by the phone surveys.