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Super Thursday – what have we learned so far?

6/5/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Key moments of the #Elections2016 so far. Live updates here: https://t.co/ZUqdq49lFc https://t.co/PwHiCCzPlw — BBC News (UK) (@BBCNews) May 6, 2016 We now have a good bank of results, which while incomplete allow us to draw some conclusions. So what conclusions can we draw? The pollsters have either made the right corrections from last year or have been lucky The local election results so far in are very much in line with the broad thrust of the opinion polls we’ve been…

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Elections update as LAB looks set to move to third in Scotland but did better than expected elsewhere

6/5/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Not since 1910 has Labour finished third in Scotland. — George Eaton (@georgeeaton) May 6, 2016 Scotland: results suggest battleground shifting from left v right to nationalist v unionist https://t.co/ZIYmd4bryo pic.twitter.com/1WiXD2CdEq — Beth Rigby (@BethRigby) May 6, 2016 One more reflection: it's logistically difficult, but also obvious that Ruth Davidson should be the next Tory leader. — Duncan Weldon (@DuncanWeldon) May 6, 2016 In London the Tory aftermath starts even before any results are in Even though the London result…

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Election night 2016: The news continues to roll in

6/5/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

After 500 English Council seats declared out of 2500, Labour down 13, Cons up 6, Libs down 2, UKIP up 14, green up 2, indies down 7 — Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) May 6, 2016 Vote change in Sheffield Westminster by election pic.twitter.com/UZipOaIcCI — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 6, 2016 If the betting's right there's a 97% chance that @KTHopkins will run naked up Regent Street with a sausage up her bum — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 6, 2016 Labour has…

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For the election night thread a special family picture

5/5/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

I love this election picture from Nelson in Lancashire in the 1920s. The man on the left in the wagon is my grand-father, Charles Smithson, who went onto to become the town’s mayor. Tonight we should be getting part of the English local results as well as many of the Scottish and Welsh parliament results. The balance of the local elections will come tomorrow along with the PCC elections in England and, last of all, the London results on which…

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The results from today’s elections could just be the trigger for a LAB leadership contest

5/5/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

It might be that we'll soon a LAB leadership contest. These are the latest Betfair odds pic.twitter.com/slvGOqntJE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 5, 2016 Currently my money’s on John McDonnell Every since his shock election last September the speculation has been that a danger period for Corbyn could come in the aftermath of today’s elections. The way that Sadiq Khan has distanced himself from his leader in recent weeks suggests that it is going to be harder for Team Corbyn…

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The numbers that the pollsters hope will help restore faith in their industry

5/5/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

For the past year it has not been much fun being a political pollster. Whenever any new survey has been published it has been greeted with “Well we all know what happened at the General Election”. So today’s elections where there’s been polling, the Welsh Assembly, the Scottish Parliament and most of all London could play a big part in the renewing faith in what they do. The reason this might sound London-centric is because the General Election Scottish polling…

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Today’s forgotten Westminster by-elections – Ogmore and Sheffield?

5/5/2016 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

Two heartland seats: two more Oldhams? There are two parliamentary by-elections tomorrow. Normally, this would be cause for a good deal of media interest: it’s rare for two or more by-elections to take place on the same day (only the tenth occasion since 1997). However, the sheer quantity of other contests occurring has relegated what ought to be routine holds for Labour in Ogmore and in Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough so far down the pecking order as to be near-invisible….

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Super Thursday 2016 : 24 hours until polls close

4/5/2016 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Some of the more choice local by-elections being held tomorrow Tormohun on Torbay (Con defence) Main Election: Mayoral Referendum Result of council at last election (2015): Con 25, Lib Dem 7, Ind 3, UKIP 1 (Con majority of 14) Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected Liberal Democrats 1,304, 1,067, 933 (25%) Conservatives 1,289, 1,154, 1,125 (25%) United Kingdom Independence Party 971, 909 (19%) Labour 944, 662, 588 (18%) Green Party 620, 511, 416 (12%) Candidates duly…

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