REMAIN now move to 78% chance
REMAIN now a 78% chance on Betfair pic.twitter.com/0aItlRMc6C — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 19, 2016
Why REMAIN, even at the very tight odds currently available, is a value bet
A guide by Alastair Meeks on betting on the overall EURef outcome Given the amount of heat that has been generated by the EU referendum, there has been surprisingly little discussion about the actual chances of the main event. It’s time to put that right. At the time of writing, Remain is 1.31 on Betfair (a 76% chance) I understand that the conventional bookies have seen Remain overwhelmingly favoured at all stages despite the short odds offered. Should you be…
The polling that suggests Corbyn is unassailable discussed in the latest PB/Polling Matters podcast
What is the future for Labour? On this week’s show, Keiran and Rob analyse YouGov’s recent polling of Labour members and what’s behind Jeremy Corbyn’s seemingly unassailable position as Labour leader. They also address the apparent limitations of such polling as described by pollster James Morris in today’s Times and what this poll tells us (and doesn’t tell us) about the future of the Labour Party. Meanwhile, the Polling Matters team also look at the continued difference between what online…
The EU Dog that hasn’t barked. Yet
A guest slot by Cyclefree It was Socrates who said that the “unexamined life is not worth living”. By the same token, one might also say that the unexamined EU is not worth being a member of. And – despite all the claims and counter-claims, exaggerations, half-truths, figures plucked out of obscure studies or the air and celebrity or heavy weight endorsements – it often feels that all the referendum campaign has amounted to is little more than “a tale…
The polling that shows LEAVE’s emphasis on “sovereignty” simply isn’t resonating
It’s been a big morning with EURef polling. First we had YouGov online showing a 4% IN lead on a revised methodology. Then then we had the May Ipsos phone poll in the Standard with IN extending its lead to 18%. That’s a huge margin and it is starting to look insurmountable. This means that the three phone polls this week all have REMAIN extending its margin even though the numbers vary from pollster to pollster. The Ipsos lead is…
The referendum will be decided by voters who don’t feel strongly about it either way
Alastair Meeks on the messaging challenges this presents for IN and OUT Leave campaigners have been vehemently arguing that we urgently need to leave the EU for many years as a top priority. Such is their vehemence and their prominence, it is easy to forget that this is a minority view. Ipsos-MORI have been tracking what the public considers to be the important issues of the day for decades. Most of the time, the EU languishes at about 10% naming…
The Clinton-Trump battle could be a lot closer than anybody thought
Via @Politicalwire How Trump is close the gap with Hillary in national polling average pic.twitter.com/ugjMw0xsJS — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 17, 2016 The polling average in the chart from PoliticalWire tells its own story. This is beginning to look as though next November’s election is set to be very tight. What’s happening with the Republicans is that the party has an election to fight in six months time and it is coming together to get behind the presumptive nominee. If…
As the EURef poster campaigns are about to start Roger evaluates their effectiveness
Tory poster from GE2015 campaign Hit Hard Hit Fast and Keep Hitting’ (Jeremy Sinclair, Saatchis) Ernest Hemingway believed the best thing he ever wrote was a six word advert “For sale. Baby shoes. Never worn”. You can understand why a novelist might be happy with such an effective use of six words. If he’d spent his time in advertising he might have honed his technique further and managed something equally effective but using only three. “Beanz Meanz Heinz”. After several…