— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 17, 2016
The polling average in the chart from PoliticalWire tells its own story. This is beginning to look as though next November’s election is set to be very tight.
What’s happening with the Republicans is that the party has an election to fight in six months time and it is coming together to get behind the presumptive nominee. If Trump is going to be the flag carrier then Trump is the one who will be supported even with all the reservations about him. He’s going to be a tough opponent for the Clinton machine.
The latest NBC/Survey Monkey poll has Clinton leading Trump by 75% among black voters and a 37% one amongst Hispanics. She is ahead with women but Trump is leading overall amongst men and white voters.
Both the likely nominees are polarising in their own ways and both have very poor favourability ratings.
There’s been a lot of talk about the VP choices that the two will make with Mrs. Palin being suggested for Trump.
On the Democratic side there’s been a lot of talk about Clinton teaming up with Senator Elizabeth Warren who would have an appeal to those who have supported 74 year old Bernie Sanders. The only trouble with this scenario is that the battle for the Senate is going to be very tight which would make it more difficult choosing a sitting Senator. A vacancy for a few months could have big implications.
In the betting Hillary has remained relatively stable but that could change.