Trying to predict the next recession has the danger making you sound like The Ancient Mariner but William Hill have a market up if the UK is going to have recession by the end of 2017 if you want to bet on the timing of it. I’m not an economist, so this piece should be viewed in that spirit. Most of the economic mood music seems to indicate backing a recession occurring before the end of 2017 might be the best…
My article for tomorrow's Observer on the #EURef polling https://t.co/yfXfgCuYiW — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 21, 2016 New Opinium online poll has IN lead getting widerIN: 44% (+2)OUT: 40% (-1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 21, 2016 CON voters split #EURef pollsICM phone 49-39 INICM online 45-44 INYouGov 44-44Ipsos MORI 60-34 INComRes 48-46 INOpinium 48-41 IN — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 21, 2016 If it stays this way it could be decisive The general view until this last week has…
The postal ballots go out next week Anything upto a quarter of the votes cast in the referendum will be by post and the time-table stipulated by the Electoral Commission states that ballot packs to postal voters should start to go out on Monday. Initially those who currently live overseas will be mailed but the plan is that UK-based postal voters will start getting their ballots by the weekend. Given that we know from past elections that most postal voters…
It’s time to take the prospect of him winning outright seriously No-one has got rich betting against Donald Trump this election campaign and now is unlikely to be the time to start. He’s currently best-priced at 5/2 with Ladbrokes, which in a two-horse race implies a serious weakness on his part. In many ways, he is a seriously weak candidate. He’s never held any public office before, never mind elected public office. He has very little active support from within…
Once upon a time @PeterKellner1 & @StephanShaxper were the leading lights in YouGov. This morning a Twitter scrap… pic.twitter.com/NBUaGDVjC5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 20, 2016 What the #EURef would look like if we just had phone polls pic.twitter.com/H2FmsCtkUL — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 20, 2016 What EURef would look like if it was just online polls pic.twitter.com/pOx6ALKDLI — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 20, 2016 Maybe all in the polling industry should have same humility as ICM's @martinboon in the…
This week being the third of the month has seen a glut of phone polls. We’ve had ICM, ORB, Ipsos MORI and last night ComRes all showing substantial REMAIN leads. Inevitably this has had an impact on the huge EUref betting markets where on Betfair alone getting on for £0.5m is being wagered each day. As I write REMAIN’s chances are rated by the market at 79% just about the highest it has ever been. But what if there were…
New @DailyMailUK/@ITVNews #EURef poll: Remain 52% (-1)Leave 41% (+3) Turnout weighted https://t.co/wjf4rvSNck pic.twitter.com/OwoRCu10I3 — Savanta UK (@Savanta_UK) May 19, 2016 New @DailyMailUK/@ITVNews #EURef poll: Remain 52% (-1)Leave 41% (+3) Turnout weighted https://t.co/wjf4rvSNck pic.twitter.com/OwoRCu10I3 — Savanta UK (@Savanta_UK) May 19, 2016
A special post by ComRes’s Adam Ludlow The polls for the London mayoral election performed strongly across the board, perhaps bringing pollsters some respite following last year’s General Election. But as pollsters, we must be careful never to rest on our laurels and make sure to review our methods and seek to improve when things go well, as well as when bigger problems occur. Indeed, at ComRes, the London result was of particular interest to us as it was the…