Betting on the Democratic Party California primary

Betting on the Democratic Party California primary

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Clinton has cancelled a day of campaigning in NJ this week and will instead return to California for 5 days ahead of the June 7 primary. — Abby D. Phillip (@abbydphillip) May 30, 2016 Perhaps I’m reading too much into the tweet by the political correspondent of The Washington Post, but Hillary Clinton’s actions don’t appear to be the actions of someone confident of winning California, There is of course huge symbolism if she fails to win California, America’s most…

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Guest Slot: A Look at the Remain Campaign.

Guest Slot: A Look at the Remain Campaign.

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  REMAIN now below 80% chance on Betfair for first time in 10 days pic.twitter.com/Of38yXY3Jk — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 30, 2016 David Kendrick looks at the Remain campagin The Remain approach has been strikingly one-paced. It has been relentlessly and exclusively negative. There has been nothing about how good the EU is, nor how it will become better. We have heard no ‘In 5 years time, the EU will…..We don’t want to get off this Euro-express.’ There is no…

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The Tories are dominating the referendum campaign and that’s not good news for Remain

The Tories are dominating the referendum campaign and that’s not good news for Remain

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If the referendum is seen solely as a Tory/right wing affair then non Tory/non right wing voters might not bother voting The Tories are dominating the EU referendum research finds, Part I. https://t.co/2cUA4YWHkv pic.twitter.com/QVnxit5WMv — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 30, 2016 Loughborough University’s Centre for Research in Communication and Culture has analysed the media coverage of the first few weeks of the referendum campaign. As we can see in the table above, it is being dominated by the Tories. If we look…

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A tale of two broadcasts. Roger’s critique of the opening two broadcasts

A tale of two broadcasts. Roger’s critique of the opening two broadcasts

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h_MzHFiu-6Y https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qe7UUa62_6c [Political] ‘advertising isn’t about truth fairness or rationality, but about mobilising deeper and more primitive layers of the human mind.’ – Brian Eno. The first two campaign broadcasts couldn’t have been more different. A brutally apocalyptic one for LEAVE and a bright new tomorrow for REMAIN. The REMAIN spot features 14 month old Sam on a baby bike in his garden and through misty slow-motion sequences a young female voice-over talks us through the opportunities young Sam will…

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Fear and loathing in the Tory Party. Whatever the result of the referendum, the Tory party is looking ungovernable

Fear and loathing in the Tory Party. Whatever the result of the referendum, the Tory party is looking ungovernable

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If Labour had a decent leader, they’d be leading by at least double digits in the polls right now. A pro-Brexit Tory MP actually said this. Story by @ShippersUnbound and @STJamesl pic.twitter.com/ZHpW1oYwk1 — Michael Deacon (@MichaelPDeacon) May 29, 2016 Nadine Dorries also reveals she has called for a confidence vote in Cameron as Tory leader. "My letter is already in" @pestononsunday — Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) May 29, 2016 William Hill cut odds for Cameron to stand down before end…

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Guest slot: Polling analysis finds Labour Loses Supporters of Brexit

Guest slot: Polling analysis finds Labour Loses Supporters of Brexit

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Embed from Getty Images   Philip Walker analyses the polling and finds 3 in Every 7 of Labour’s 2015 Voters Backing Brexit Would Not Vote Labour in 2016 In the EU referendum, online and phone polls have persistently been at odds. Last week, YouGov reacted by publishing in full a set of parallel online and phone polling conducted in early May, exposing flaws in the phone sample to defend its own online method.  For polling junkies that unprecedented transparency had a…

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Is this Ed Miliband’s route back to the Labour leadership?

Is this Ed Miliband’s route back to the Labour leadership?

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Guess who might be making a comeback? https://t.co/yfTn1p0f3f pic.twitter.com/DRRJgqOfww — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 28, 2016 This piece isn’t an attempt to make John Rentoul’s QTWTAIN list, again, but The Daily Telegraph has reported that Ed Miliband is considering a return to Jeremy Corbyn’s shadow cabinet. The Telegraph report says The former Labour leader is said to be weighing up a return to frontline politics as sources said Mr Corbyn wants to appoint the “big hitter” and prevent a leadership challenge by giving his…

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LEAVE’s strong support amongst the oldies is an online phenomenon – the phone surveys paint a different picture

LEAVE’s strong support amongst the oldies is an online phenomenon – the phone surveys paint a different picture

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This starts to explain the modal divide After all the discussion during the week about why the phone and online polls are showing such different pictures I’ve been examining the detailed data from he last eight polls. The area where the two modes most divide is with the oldies – the group that, as we all know is most likely to turnout on June 23rd. The chart above shows the turnout weighted percentage of those oldies expressing a voting intention…

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