politicalbetting.com – Page 1074 – The web's premier resource for political betting.

Local By-Elections : June 2nd 2016 (Referendum Day -21 days and counting)

2/6/2016 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Oban North and Lorn (Ind defence, elected as SNP) on Argyll and Bute Result of council at last election (2012) : Independents 15, Scottish Nationalists 13, Liberal Democrats 4, Conservatives 4 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 4) Result of ward at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected Independents 421, 807, 125, 361, 222, 58 (55%) Scottish National Party 410, 707 (31%) Conservatives 332 (9%) Liberal Democrats 188 (5%) Candidates duly nominated: Kieron Green (Ind), David Pollard (Lib Dem),…

Read More Read More

LEAVE closing the polling gap. Watch an examination by the PB/Polling Matters team in latest TV Show

2/6/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

In this week’s edition Keiran is joined by Rob Vance and Leo Barasi, where they discuss the latest EU polls – is Leave catching up? Keiran argues Leave should focus on immigration whilst Rob and Leo disagree The also discuss the next Tory leader, is Michael Gove King or Kingmaker? Also discussed Why Bob the Builder is a classic C2 swing. The audio only version of the podcast is here TSE

Leave’s major advantage in the last three weeks of the campaign. The Tory press is on their side

2/6/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

The Sun front page from last Friday, after another poor set of net immigration figures for Cameron This referendum could boil down to Cameron v The Tory Press. If Cameron prevails, it could be good news for Corbyn. One of the most fascinating aspects of this referendum campaign is a Tory PM and most of the Tory Press being on opposite sides. As Neil Kinnock and Ed Miliband can attest the press can very brutal. Whilst I don’t subscribe to…

Read More Read More

Remain appear to be winning the ground war but looks like Leave are winning the twitter war

1/6/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Who is winning the EU referendum ground war? https://t.co/xxesPrwhy9 pic.twitter.com/WksVrowXTu — Matt Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) June 1, 2016 Matthew Goodwin has done some analysis and finds “The EU Referendum Events Project at the Universities of Kent and Nottingham, which is mapping campaign events in real time, shows Remain is far more active than Leave, the bulk of the activity on both sides is concentrated on London, and Brexit backers have yet to target northern England, which should be fertile ground for Eurosceptics.” Meanwhile over on twitter Twitter have…

Read More Read More

In past referenda polls tend to overstate the change option

1/6/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

In past plebiscites polls tend to overstate the change option @StephenDFisher analysis finds https://t.co/OPcbNigYyC pic.twitter.com/Ji9p5o65Kl — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 1, 2016 Stephen Fisher and Alan Renwick have analysed past referenda in the UK, and they notice that We reflect on the historical experience of polls for referendums in the UK. The graph shows the levels of support for the change option (excluding Don’t Knows) in polls and the final outcome for all ten referendums in the UK for which there…

Read More Read More

Just when you thought June 23rd couldn’t get any more exciting

1/6/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

If on June 23rd there are major movements on the betting and currency markets this is why. https://t.co/cKY5lx3Xtl pic.twitter.com/Q9GcWfQZMh — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 31, 2016 A private exit poll could trigger a run on Sterling and impact the outcome of the referendum The FT are reporting that Hedge funds and investment banks have commissioned private exit polls in an attempt to make profits from the result of the UK’s referendum on EU membership next month. By finding out the voting patterns…

Read More Read More

Mind the Gap

31/5/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Cyclefree: If Leave wins, immigration will likely have been one of the main factors. But what then? Indeed, what then if Remain wins? Much as with the EU debate itself, the immigration debate has been characterised by dishonesty, evasion and avoidance of reality. So – much like the Irishman asked for directions saying that they wouldn’t start from here – let me suggest some basic requirements for an immigration policy and compare them with what we have within the EU…

Read More Read More

ICM Phone poll sees Leave 4% ahead. A fortnight ago Remain was ahead by 10%

31/5/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

ICM EURef phone poll. Leave 52 (+7) Remain 48 (-7) changes from a fortnight ago. https://t.co/6SB9881fAU pic.twitter.com/AGJsLvre6I — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 31, 2016 Both the ICM phone and online polls show Leave winning by 4%. The phone poll sees a 7% swing from Remain to Leave, the online poll sees no swing. Like last night’s ORB phone poll, there’s been a significant shift to Leave, this time a 7% swing from Remain to Leave. What makes this poll very interesting…

Read More Read More