If it does is that good or bad for BREXIT? I’ve just returned from three weeks in Spain – a holiday that was fixed well before the referendum date was announced and TSE, as usual, has been in charge of the site during my absence. Although I’ve continued to be very active on Twitter I have been viewing things from afar. What has struck me on my return is how the total dominant feature of the campaign has become that…
There’d be no special status second time round If there was one thing that won the Scottish Independence referendum for No (or Remain in current parlance), it was the currency question. The uncertainty surrounding what currency an independent Scotland would use, whether it would be forced into the Euro, which central bank – if any – would underpin the financial system and so on was not only a massive inhibitive in its own right but also encapsulated the wider…
Ladbrokes have a market up on a second referendum to be held before July 2017 at odds of 10/1. My initial thought was no bet for me, but then I remembered Leave’s front man, Boris Johnson, has in the past talked about two referendums, “Johnson has told friends that a “no” vote is desirable because it would prompt Brussels to offer a much better deal, which the public could then support in a second referendum.” Though Boris has u-turned on…
Cyclefree says it is notable that few in the Remain camp have sought to make a positive case for the EU. So let me make some suggestions. (And no, this gives you no clue as to my vote.) The EU as a force for good. Who knows whether Western civilization will survive a Brexit. It survived the temporary disappearance of Poland so it can surely survive the departure of a damp island in the middle of the North Sea. But…
We’re starting to see swings back to Remain, even in most of the polls conducted before the events of Thursday. YouGov sees a 4% swing in a week Sunday Times YouGov poll 44-43 lead for Remain. YouGov say it has been moving remain's way in unpublished polls long before Jo Cox killed — Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) June 18, 2016 To read YouGov correctly: last Mon 6pt leave lead. Good Morning Britain poll done midweek 2% leave lead. Ours done thurs/fri…
Latest @ComResPolls poll on the reactions of voters to a Remain or Leave victory pic.twitter.com/AaaBM9rBaf — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 18, 2016 44% would be “delighted” by a Leave vote; only 28% by a Remain vote ComRes have conducted an online poll for the Independent on Sunday/People, whilst the poll doesn’t ask a EU referendum voting intention question, because ComRes prefer their phone polls for the EURef, the supplementaries are fascinating. Labour voters are more than twice as likely as Conservative…
Embed from Getty Images A common thread in both the Remain and Leave campaigns is that the EU is something that is done by them to us. Crudely, Leave wants no more of this. And, equally crudely, Remain are saying that if we go what they will do to us (or even what we will do to ourselves by leaving) will be “such revenges…….such things, what they are, yet I know not: but they shall be the terrors of…
From @BMGResearch, data indicates Leave voters easier to contact/poll than Remain voters https://t.co/zksowqJqxs pic.twitter.com/vnLNZ4EEMy — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 18, 2016 The modal differences strikes backs BMG have conducted simultaneous online and phone polls. The online poll sees what we’ve seen in other recent polls, with a significant swing to Leave, giving Leave a 10% lead. BMG’s debut EURef poll does give Remain a 7% lead,BMG themselves say they prefer their phone poll over the online poll because of understanding which…