ComRes poll finds voters feel more positive about leaving the EU than they do about staying

ComRes poll finds voters feel more positive about leaving the EU than they do about staying

44% would be “delighted” by a Leave vote; only 28% by a Remain vote

ComRes have conducted an online poll for the Independent on Sunday/People, whilst the poll doesn’t ask a EU referendum voting intention question, because ComRes prefer their phone polls for the EURef, the supplementaries are fascinating.

Labour voters are more than twice as likely as Conservative voters to say they would feel terrified if Britain votes to leave the EU next week (39% leave v 17% remain). Conservative voters are divided on this (26% leave v 25% remain).Conversely, Conservative voters are more likely than Labour voters to say they will feel delighted in the result of Britain voting to leave the EU (43% v 31%).

But was there an impact from the murder of Jo Cox?

Andrew Hawkins, Chairman of ComRes, says

We have provided an additional crossbreak to split out respondents interviewed before 2pm on Thursday and those interviewed afterwards.  Of course, not all respondents will have learned of the attack immediately, so it is reasonable to assume that the cut-off may under-measure reaction to the news. 

The comparisons are slightly contradictory across all of the questions, and the results should be taken with a degree of caution, since the pre-2pm sample comprised 1854 respondents and the post-2pm sample only 192.

Nevertheless…across ALL factors reaction to a Leave vote is more negative post-2pm.

It is just possible that the post-2pm sample varies from the pre-2pm one enough to create this more negative impact for Leave.  But it is also intuitive to assume that there will have been some impact, even if only marginal, of Thursday’s events.  And not all of those post-2pm respondents will have heard the news by the time they participated in the survey.

But due to the size of the sample, we should wait until the first poll conducted entirely after her murder before drawing any conclusions,  but many people wont be surprised if these ComRes findings are replicated in a full poll.

ComRes also asked a Westminster VI question, the results are Con 34% (-2) Lab 29% (-1) LD 8% (NC) UKIP 19% (+2) Green 4% (NC) SNP 5% (NC) Other 1% (NC)

Opinium also conducted an EURef poll, which was Remain 44 (nc) Leave 44 (+2) but the majority of the fieldwork was before 2pm on Thursday.


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