The chronology suggests that the momentum is with Leadsom

The chronology suggests that the momentum is with Leadsom

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Could there be an effort to see that she doesn’t make the final 2? One aspect of the two member surveys that we had overnight is that all the ConHome one was carried out yesterday while the YouGov poll fieldwork started on Friday and went through till yesterday. Given we know that most responses tend to come in during the first period of fieldwork then YouGov was probably more influenced by Friday and Saturday respondents than Sunday and Monday. The…

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May beats Leadsom by 32 points in latest YouGov poll

May beats Leadsom by 32 points in latest YouGov poll

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What a contrast to the Conhome poll – The Leadsomites will be devastated  by this poll Exc: Times/YouGov Tory members poll In final round, May beats Leadsom by 32 points. May 63%Leadsom 31% pic.twitter.com/txR2opHGPR — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) July 4, 2016 YouGov / Times poll of Tory members. May wins in EVERY category sometimes by 50+ points pic.twitter.com/FbvH8nMwJn — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) July 4, 2016 And it looks like Michael Gove trashed his reputation for nothing YouGov Tory…

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Leadsom leads in new CONHome survey of party members

Leadsom leads in new CONHome survey of party members

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Will we get the same picture from YouGov? ConHome has published the results of a new survey of CON members. This is NOT a proper poll but CONHome can point to how close their member survey was in 2005 getting Cameron’s victory margin almost dead on. The results were:- Leadsom 38% May 37% Gove 13% Crabb 6% Fox 5% Whatever this looks very close between May and Leadsom who between secured 75% of the support. We do know that CON…

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The CON leadership line-up is worryingly thin

The CON leadership line-up is worryingly thin

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This is for PM & more than a party matter Don’t you like farce? The Conservative party leadership election is dishing up plenty of it, and all of the blackest variety. Like horror movies, there are rules for Conservative party leadership elections: you may not survive if you have sex; you may not survive if you drink or do drugs; and, as Boris Johnson found out, you may not survive if you say “I’ll be right back”, “Hello?” or “Who’s…

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Now Farage quits and this time he says it’s for real

Now Farage quits and this time he says it’s for real

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Nigel Farage: I said I want my country back. What I am saying today is ‘I want my life back’ and it begins right now https://t.co/p4yQiBNONP — BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) July 4, 2016 Wiliam Hill make Suzanne Evans 7/4 favourite to be UKIP leader — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 4, 2016

A big 36 hours ahead in the race to Number 10

A big 36 hours ahead in the race to Number 10

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CON leader betting Betfair exchange 0540BST pic.twitter.com/VARc6pOfNq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 4, 2016 Theresa May strong odds on favourite the day before the first vote Tomorrow MPs will vote by secret ballot in the first round of the 2016 Conservative Leadership Race. The choice will be more than just the party leadership because the winner becomes the next PM. Five names are on the tomorrow’s ballot and MPs have to choose just one. The contender who receives the fewest…

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The gloves come off in the Tory race

The gloves come off in the Tory race

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The @Telegraph puts the boot into Gove. https://t.co/szMhu8HXbD pic.twitter.com/g3WrnNrhSr — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 3, 2016 This is by a fellow CON MP The article is by Ben Wallace, MP for Wyre and Preston North. He writes:- “..From the minute Michael Gove came on board with Boris’s leadership campaign, things started to go wrong. There was a leak a day in the press, starting with the camera crews at Boris’s house in Oxfordshire on the first day and ending with…

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The betting on when will Article 50 be triggered, if ever?

The betting on when will Article 50 be triggered, if ever?

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Pictures: First picture odds from Stan James, second picture, odds from SkyBet There’s a couple of markets up on when Article 50 will be triggered, if you’re lucky to have a Stan James account, I wonder backing the any other outcome other option. It is effectively a bet on Article 50 being triggered in 2018 or later, not at all. Now 2018 might sound far away, but we’re less than 18 months away from 2018, and given the gravity of…

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