What would really make Corbyn invincible is doing better than the 59.5% of 2015

What would really make Corbyn invincible is doing better than the 59.5% of 2015

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WikipediaLAB leadership contest 2015 If last week’s YouGov LAB members’ polling is indeed in the right territory and the split in the 183k £25 sign-up is as reported then Corbyn is heading for a big victory when the results are announced on September 24th. Sure a lot can happen in the next eight weeks and Owen Smith is still a relative unknown but nobody doubts that he has a mountain to climb. Perhaps the best he can hope for is…

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Trump gets marked bounce in first round of post-convention polling and now has clear national lead

Trump gets marked bounce in first round of post-convention polling and now has clear national lead

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As Democrats gather Philadelphia convention Trump gets marked convention bounce in latest round of WH2016 polling pic.twitter.com/UxFhchvriS — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 25, 2016 This is going to be a tough one for Clinton/Kaine Any idea that Hillary Clinton’s election in November is a forgone conclusion have been shaken in the first batch of post-Republican Convention polls. As the table show he’s got a clear leads. This comes as the Democratic national convention gets underway later today in Philadelphia with…

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Betting on when Boris Johnson’s tenure as Foreign Secretary will end

Betting on when Boris Johnson’s tenure as Foreign Secretary will end

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Boris still wants to be PM, so he’ll try and make a success of his current role. Ladbrokes have a market up on when Boris Johnson’s tenure as Foreign Secretary will end. Like many I suspect Boris thought his ambition to be Prime Minister was over after Michael Gove’s transformation into Frank Underwood, but Gove is now looking more like Frank Spencer than Frank Underwood whilst Boris is now Foreign Secretary. Whilst I know there has been some incredulity from…

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How Theresa May could turn out to be the Labour party’s very unlikely saviour

How Theresa May could turn out to be the Labour party’s very unlikely saviour

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NXVi0MikSx8 Video: A clip from John McDonnell’s appearance on The Andrew Marr Show this morning Joff Wild on how Theresa May could simultaneously increase the Tory majority and save the Labour Party from Corbyn John McDonnell’s appearance on the Andrew Marr Show this morning was among the most extraordinary television interventions that a senior politician has made in recent years. During the course of the interview, McDonnell explained how the Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, did not understand the party’s policy…

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Wiping out the Lib Dems might have been Cameron’s greatest strategic mistake as Prime Minister

Wiping out the Lib Dems might have been Cameron’s greatest strategic mistake as Prime Minister

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Picture: The apotheosis of the Tory targeting of the Lib Dems at the last general election. Why Cameron might still be PM if the coalition had continued after May 2015. When David Cameron reflects on his earlier than anticipated departure as Prime Minister I wonder if in hindsight he’ll regret his and Sir Lynton’s Crosby targeting of the Lib Dem held seats at the last general election. At the time the 27 Tory gains from the Lib Dems was hailed…

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If Corbyn’s future was decided by those who voted for the party at GE2015 his prospects would look grim

If Corbyn’s future was decided by those who voted for the party at GE2015 his prospects would look grim

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Members may take different view but to LAB general election voters he’s a dead man walking Corbyn’s battle to hang onto his job, as we all know, will be decided by party members and others who’ve managed to become part of the “selectorate” for this crucial election. What member polling there’s been suggests that he’s doing OK and has a clear lead over the contender, Owen Smith. The YouGov survey took place before Angela Eagle withdrew from the race and…

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Labour, heading towards the cliff

Labour, heading towards the cliff

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The Leadership Election is their last chance to save themselves ‘Exceptional things don’t happen as often as commentators think’ is nearly always a good betting rule of thumb but there are two riders to that assertion. Firstly, ‘not as often’ doesn’t mean ‘never’, and secondly, when they do happen, they can cluster. In fact, 2016 hasn’t been quite as extraordinary as some might believe, though only because 2015 was. Brexit might be a defining moment in both the UK’s and…

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