As Democrats gather Philadelphia convention Trump gets marked convention bounce in latest round of WH2016 polling pic.twitter.com/UxFhchvriS
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 25, 2016
This is going to be a tough one for Clinton/Kaine
Any idea that Hillary Clinton’s election in November is a forgone conclusion have been shaken in the first batch of post-Republican Convention polls. As the table show he’s got a clear leads.
This comes as the Democratic national convention gets underway later today in Philadelphia with defeated nomination contender, Bernie Sanders having a prime slot.
Maybe the Trump polling will act as a jolt to the party and encourage greater unity round the Clinton campaign. A key Clinton objective is to try to ensure that those, particularly young voters, who had been giving the 74 year old socialist from Vermont their enthusiastic backing switch to her. There are hopes that her choice of Tim Kaine as VP nominee will help.
Looking at the numbers above it is hard to conclude that this is other than a very tight campaign and it is far from certain that Trump will be defeated.
One issue that is growing in importance are suggestions that Russia’s Vladimir Putin is backing Trump.There’s a good analysis here which, no doubt, the Clinton campaign will seek to exploit to the full.
The election will, of course, not be decided by national vote shares but by first past the post contests in the various states. As soon as we get some new surveys from the key swing conttests I’ll start produce tables like the national one above.
I’m now betting on Trump because I think he’s currently under-priced.