If last week’s YouGov LAB members’ polling is indeed in the right territory and the split in the 183k £25 sign-up is as reported then Corbyn is heading for a big victory when the results are announced on September 24th.
Sure a lot can happen in the next eight weeks and Owen Smith is still a relative unknown but nobody doubts that he has a mountain to climb. Perhaps the best he can hope for is reducing Corbyn’s winning share from the 59.5% of 2015.
What Smith and those opposed to the incumbent want is for Corbyn to secure a smaller percentage share this time. That would provide some vindication of the PLP’s “no confidence” move and also, possibly set things up for another contest next year.
I’ve been asking my LAB contacts what vote share Corbyn needs to get in order to stabilise things within his party and the consensus is that anything below 55%-56% would be bad news.
There is also the ongoing forward risk of some sort of split though having watched at first hand the formation of the SDP in the early 80s and I fully aware that this is a massive challenge.
UPDATE Ladbrokes do have a Corbyn vote share market up but there are no obvious bargain.
Hopefully there’ll be betting markets on the leadership race vote shares.