But there’s a sharp increase in don’t knows Almost one of the constants of this campaign has been that the Inners are doing a fair bit better with phone polls than online and so the pattern continues tonight. The first phone poll to be carried out wholly in April, by ComRes for the Sun, has REMAIN maintaining its 7% lead – a gap which is very much in line with the other phone polls that we saw at the start…
77% chance of REMAIN winning says @MattSingh_ With his accuracy at GE2015 punters take note https://t.co/wKD7ooJRHD pic.twitter.com/BXUJA9fRBy — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 17, 2016 But here’s a reminder that betting markets aren’t infallible. This time last year, Ed Miliband was odds-on favourite to be next Prime Minister. pic.twitter.com/T9eaB53Zgq — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) April 14, 2016 @MSmithsonPB About 75% of money staked on elections happens in the last 4 weeks, even if the markets have been running for years. —…
YouGov have published some polling, conducted within the last week on which groups the voters identify the Tory Party and the Labour Party with. The findings aren’t that surprising. The Tories are perceived to be really close to the rich, businessmen/The City, and voters in the south. Whilst Labour are seen as being really close to trade unions, the working class, and benefit claimants. The most interesting finding from this polling was that the Tories are seen as being not…
Why LEAVE has to undermine the PM It is said, though I have no independent verification, that the Lynton Crosby analysis of the referendum is that the outers have to totally undermine Cameron’s reputation if they are to have a chance. With Corbyn now coming off the fence which should encourage the Labour IN vote current CON voters are a major battleground between IN and OUT. The polls vary but all have LEAVE ahead amongst this voting segment but the…
Trump’s amateur approach is costing him the election Back in October, I tipped Ted Cruz for the Republican nomination as a trading bet. As always with such bets, the trick is trading out at the right time. So with Cruz now at less than 2/1 across the board, when is that time? The simple answer is ‘not yet’. In a normal year, a candidate in Trump’s position would have the nomination near-enough sown up. Although he’ll probably fall short of…
There’s a new YouGov poll out which has REMAIN back with in lead from the level pegging. Actual figures are 40% to 39% so all within margin of errot. At the end of the survey YouGov posed this question. “Imagine that if the UK left the European Union the standard of living would be lower and people would on average be £100 a year worse off. In those circumstances, how would you vote in the referendum: Should the United Kingdom…
Via @montie More bad polling comparisons for Osborne. Look how far he's behind Corbyn pic.twitter.com/eXP1DSSqyT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 14, 2016 Alastair Meeks says predicting GE2020 is harder than the blues think Much comment has been passed this week on David Cameron’s falling ratings. He now ranks behind Jeremy Corbyn on favourability ratings with YouGov. “How low he has sunk” is the usual comment, and it is true. But as the table above shows, this is not a problem…
It always used to be the received wisdom that rich over-optimistic Tories were responsible for keeping the Conservative price short and their seat spread high. Famously one such Tory lost over £100k in 1997, because of his faith that John Major would not do as badly as he did. But there was little evidence of this effect this time last year; punters seemed to be guided more by opinion polls and by the various models driven by them. The bookmakers and Betfair…