Local By-Elections : 4th August is Super Thursday with 4 Con, 2 Lab, and 1 UKIP defence

Local By-Elections : 4th August is Super Thursday with 4 Con, 2 Lab, and 1 UKIP defence

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Beaver (Lab defence) on Ashford Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 34, Labour 4, Independents 3, Liberal Democrat 1, United Kingdom Independence Party 1 (Conservative majority of 25) Result of ward at last election (2015) : Emboldened denotes elected Labour 817, 645 (31%) United Kingdom Independence Party 812 (31%) Conservatives 715, 423 (27%) Green Party 195, 135 (7%) Independent 126 (5%) Referendum Result: REMAIN 28,314 (41%) LEAVE 41,472 (59%) on a turnout of 77% Candidates duly nominated: Jo…

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Latest WH2016 swing state polls have Clinton equalling or doing better than Obama’s 2012 result

Latest WH2016 swing state polls have Clinton equalling or doing better than Obama’s 2012 result

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We are getting to a stage where the really interesting WH2016 polls are not the national ones but how well Clinton and Trump are doing in the key swing states where White House Elections are won and lost.  This is probably not more than ten and it is where all the intensive campaigning takes pace. It is helpful to show what happened in in Obama-Romney fights in 2012. Michigan was won by Obama with a 9.5% margin in 2012. The…

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LAB’s leadership weakness and another double digit Tory lead will increase the clamour for an early election

LAB’s leadership weakness and another double digit Tory lead will increase the clamour for an early election

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Tories move to 14% lead in Times/YouGov pollCON 42+2LAB 28=LD 8=UKIP 12-1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 3, 2016 On this day in Ed Miliband leadership, Aug 3 2011, YouGov had LAB on 44% – 9 ahead of the Tories. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 3, 2016 May doesn’t have the MPs to be sure of getting a BREXIT deal through We have now got to a stage where a national voting poll that doesn’t give the Tories a 10%+…

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Diane James now 75% favourite to be next UKIP leader

Diane James now 75% favourite to be next UKIP leader

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After a big day of developments in the UKIP leadership race Diana James now 75% Betfair favourite to succeed Farage pic.twitter.com/N8bkUOWUqM — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 3, 2016 Does anybody know what this is about? https://twitter.com/election_data/status/760922561530167296

The LAB-UKIP race is on: Which party will split first?

The LAB-UKIP race is on: Which party will split first?

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All not happy in UKIP-Land. Faragists Vow to "Declare War on UKIP" – Guido https://t.co/OPPknzez3j — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 3, 2016 Mirror July 13: Owen Smith warns of "disastrous split" if Corbyn winshttps://t.co/ip0QjZslX1 — Jason Beattie (@JBeattieMirror) August 3, 2016 Calling @sharpeangle William Hill @LadPolitics What about a new betting market? Which party will split first UKIP or Labour? — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 3, 2016 What about if 3+ current MPs/MEPs move to new party? — Mike Smithson…

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Billionaire Republican fundraiser, Meg Whitman, says she’ll raise money for Hillary Clinton in order to stop Trump

Billionaire Republican fundraiser, Meg Whitman, says she’ll raise money for Hillary Clinton in order to stop Trump

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Another sign of the party splits that the Trump nomination has created The big WH2016 news overnight is a story in the New York Times that prominent GOP fundraiser and Hewlett Packard executive, Meg Whitman, has announced that she’s supporting Hillary Clinton and will help raise money for her campaign. According to the New York Times she says she’s taking the action in order to stop Trump who she describes as a threat to American democracy. She told the paper:-…

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Owen Smith’s big hope is with members who joined before GE2015

Owen Smith’s big hope is with members who joined before GE2015

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The post-GE2015 entryists are mostly Corbyn’s > Up to 50,000 'registered supporter' applicants for Labour leader election blocked or in doubt https://t.co/4MFY7eT2js — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 2, 2016 The overnight HuffPost article linked to in the Tweet above suggests that the £25 sign-ups have been trimmed down by about 50k which means there’ll be about 130k-135k actual participants in the election. Of those it’s estimated that about 65% are for Corbyn which is markedly down on the 84% vote…

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