We are getting to a stage where the really interesting WH2016 polls are not the national ones but how well Clinton and Trump are doing in the key swing states where White House Elections are won and lost. This is probably not more than ten and it is where all the intensive campaigning takes pace. It is helpful to show what happened in in Obama-Romney fights in 2012.
Michigan was won by Obama with a 9.5% margin in 2012. The latest survey from Detroit News has it Clinton 41%, Trump 32%. So just about dead even with four years ago.
In New Hampshire in 2012 Obama came home with a 5.5% margin. The latest, from WBUR/MassInc has it at Clinton 47%, Trump 32% so Clinton doing far better than time. Romney was probably helped in 2012 because he was from the neighbouring state of Massachusetts where he’d been governor
Pennsylvania, parts of which can be said to be in the “rust belt” which has long been highlighted as a good prospect for Trump. This is because of his a appeal to white working class men. In 2012 Romney made this a key target and came out just 5.5% behind. The latest Franklin & Marshall poll puts it at Clinton 49%, Trump 38%. PPP has the gap at 4% while Suffolk University gives Clinton a 9% lead.
As we get close expect lively betting markets on individual states and I’ll try to do regular state round-ups.