I hear Steven Woolfe has failed to be nominated for leader of Ukip. His form came in 20 minutes late, I'm told. — Michael Crick (@MichaelLCrick) July 31, 2016 This’ll will turn the betting on its head On seeing Crick’s Tweet I managed to lay as much was was available on Betfair. If this is indeed the case I’m £666 up on the afternoon. When the Crick Tweet came out Woolfe was a 72% chance on Betfair. Big question now…
The Moss Side born barrister looks well placed build on UKIP’s strengths in LAB’s Northern heartlands Steven Woolfe MEP is the red hot odds on favourite to become UKIP leader in succession to Nigel Farage who stood down after the referendum. He’s said to have the backing of Arron Banks. He’s articulate, telegenic and an effective communicator on TV. Unlike Farage who is very much of the South East, Woolfe is from the north West where the party has had…
Joff Wild on the divides in the main opposition party Today’s Daily Telegraph ran an intriguing piece about plans being hatched by some Labour MPs if, as expected, Jeremy Corbyn wins the party’s leadership election in September. According to the newspaper’s political correspondent Ben Riley-Smith, rebels are exploring the possibility of setting up a semi-independent party in the Commons that would have its own leader and front bench, and would aim to replace Corbyn’s Labour as the official opposition….
Elitism has a rightful place in politics A colleague told me this week that she felt let down that she couldn’t vote in the Conservative leadership contest. Never mind that her politics are somewhere between Jeremy Corbyn and Natalie Bennett, or that I – like the rest of the voluntary section of the Conservative Party – didn’t get a vote in the leadership contest, she’s of the opinion that everyone should be entitled to have a say in the internal…
Harry Hayfield’s round-up contests in principal auhorities Newlyn and Goonhavern (Con defence) on Cornwall Result: Liberal Democrat 247 (24%, no candidate in 2013), Conservative 234 (23% -23%), Yeo (Independent) 163 (16%), Mebyon Kernow 161 (16% -28%), Labour 77 (8% -2%), Tucker (Independent) 75 (7%), Thomas (Independent) 54 (5%) Total Independent vote: 292 (29%, no candidates in 2012) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 13 (1%) on a notional swing of 23.5% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat Harringay…
My WH2016 National polling table. I'll be doing key state surveys soon. pic.twitter.com/re3wHD9yA0 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 29, 2016 90 day Betfair WH2016 chart pic.twitter.com/wPHyIr5CQu — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 29, 2016
I didn’t stay up overnight to watch Hillary Clinton’s acceptance speech at the end of the Democratic convention but it seems to have been well received. The betting markets have moved a notch back towards here but we need to see a full range of post convention polling before we can start drawing conclusions. If the polling averages from next Monday onwards are just showing this to be level pegging then Trump could be said to be the winner of…
Two good performances already for the Lib Dems RESULT July 26 The Hangers and Forest (Con defence) on East Hampshire Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 42, Liberal Democrats 2 (Conservative majority of 40) Result of ward at last election (2015): Conservative 983 (69%), Independent 257 (18%), Labour 184 (13%) Referendum Result: REMAIN 37,346 (51%) LEAVE 36,576 (49%) on a turnout of 82% Candidates duly nominated: Keith Budden (Con), Don Jerrard (Justice and Anti Corruption), Roger Mullenger (Lib…