The polls might still be overstating Labour

The polls might still be overstating Labour

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Disillusionment and disengagement rather than defection is the danger The Ipsos-Mori poll this week contained a paradox. On the one hand, Labour’s headline voting intention share was 34%, some way up on their General Election performance. On the other, Jeremy Corbyn’s approval ratings were awful. His overall score of -34 was bad enough but his net rating with Labour’s own voters, at -7%, was considerably lower than Theresa May’s approval rating of some +16% with those same voters. In fact…

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Mrs. May’s new PM ratings honeymoon is bigger than Thatcher’s, Cameron’s or Brown’s, but smaller than Major or Blair

Mrs. May’s new PM ratings honeymoon is bigger than Thatcher’s, Cameron’s or Brown’s, but smaller than Major or Blair

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Putting the current ratings numbers into a historical context With a lot of the non-LAB leadership politics discussion being on May’s polling honeymoon I thought I’d look back at the old MORI ratings to see how other new PM’s were doing at this stage in their occupancy of Number 10. To its great credit Ipsos MORI keeps excellent historical records and has a whole section devoted to old polling data. So compiling the above has been easy. Interestingly Mrs. Thatcher…

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Making sense of this week’s UK and US polling – the PB/Polling Matters TV Show

Making sense of this week’s UK and US polling – the PB/Polling Matters TV Show

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Hardly a day’s gone by without some new UK poll much of it focused on the new PM and, of course, the Smth-Corbyn battle for the Labour leadership. On top of that WH2016 gets closer and the question is being asked of whether a Hillary Clinton is now inevitable. Discussing this with Keiran Pedley is pollster Rob Vance and polling analyst Leo Barasi. On this week’s podcast the team continue the new format of the show. Each guest picks a…

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Tonight’s ten local by-elections with UKIP, CON, LAB and the LDs defending seats

Tonight’s ten local by-elections with UKIP, CON, LAB and the LDs defending seats

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Pelham (Lab defence) on Gravesham Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 23, Labour 21 (Conservative majority of 2) Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected Labour 1,792, 1,708, 1,625 (50%) Conservatives 1,246, 1,131, 1,038 (35%) Green Party 525 (15%) Referendum Result: REMAIN 18,876 (35%) LEAVE 35,643 (65%) on a turnout of 75% Candidates duly nominated: Conrad Broadley (Con), Emma Foreman (Eng Dem), Marna Gilligan (Green), Gary Harding (UKIP), Sharan Virk (Lib Dem), Jenny Wallace (Lab)…

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Cyclefree on the perils of hubris

Cyclefree on the perils of hubris

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“It’s the economy, stupid” has been the default position for electoral campaigns for seemingly forever. It was fundamentally the basis on which Remain campaigned. It appears to be the reason why the Tories are confident that a Corbyn-led Labour party cannot win, not just because of Corbyn himself but because it will be easy to point at how Labour will ruin the economy. But is this truism always true? During our post-referendum summer languor, it may be worth looking at…

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The reason Theresa May is rating so well, even amongst LAB voters, is that she exudes competence

The reason Theresa May is rating so well, even amongst LAB voters, is that she exudes competence

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Her current LAB alternative does not Yesterday’s shock leader satisfaction ratings from Ipsos MORI that had May with net a positive from LAB voters while Corbyn was given a net negative by the same segment was totally unprecedented. Generally people respond to leader ratings on party basis. The numbers come on top of a series of leader ratings which have been very good for the new PM and very bad for Corbyn who is battling to hang on to his…

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