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The economics of discontent

5/6/2016 TSE Comments 651 Comments

Does your income provide a comfortable lifestyle? Here’s what you said… pic.twitter.com/zz9AE41aKI — Moneywise (@Moneywiseonline) May 9, 2016 Alastair Meeks on why Leave is prospering Where did it all go right? The bare statistics are breathtaking. Even looking in percentage terms, employment rates are at all time highs, unemployment rates are at 10 year lows and the economic inactivity rate is also at a joint all time low (tying with 1990). Job vacancies are hovering just below their all time…

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New Opinium poll has Remain still ahead but under their old methodology Leave would be ahead

4/6/2016 TSE Comments 415 Comments

Opinium Remain 43 (-1) Leave 41 (+1) but for new methodology Leave would be ahead https://t.co/A25xws4OWv pic.twitter.com/Api6tEZytX — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 4, 2016 Like the ORB and ICM phone polls, there appears to have been a marked shift towards Leave before the methodology change, what will also delight Leave is this, Opinium say ‘In our last poll, 47% leaned towards Remaining while 32% leaned the other way. In this latest poll, undecideds are nearly evenly split with 36% leaning towards…

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Guest slot: Politics after Brexit

4/6/2016 TSE Comments 537 Comments

Nick Palmer looks at what will really happen? It’s only quite recently that most serious commentators took the prospect of a Leave vote seriously. A consequence of that is that there has been very little serious analysis of what would happen next in political terms. Leave say we’ll feel free at last, Remain say the pound will plummet and we’ll risk an economic crisis. But what, specifically, will happen in terms of Government? Some suggestions: 1) Cameron will quit. It…

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Corbyn found his voice on Thursday. Unfortunately, it was echoed by his supporters

3/6/2016 David Herdson Comments 644 Comments

One of the most remarkable aspects of Corbyn’s Labour is its attitude to the media Alistair Campbell would be turning in his grave were it not for the fact that he’s not dead. Not only did the Labour supporters booing the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg at Jeremy Corbyn’s speech on Thursday drive the wedge between party and media that bit further but it distracted from the main purpose of the event, which was for the Labour leader to add his weight…

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Michael Gove’s very big night out

3/6/2016 TSE Comments 854 Comments

ConHome leader June 2016 next leader survey Last night on Sky News we saw the current Tory leader, tonight shall we be seeing the next Tory leader? My betting strategy says no. Tonight Michael Gove, who has led the ConHome readers’ vote to be next Tory leader for the last three will be putting the Leave side on Sky News. Whilst I have many doubts about the ConHome polling, not least because it offers a range of options to the…

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What should the losers do next on 24 June?

3/6/2016 TSE Comments 711 Comments

Embed from Getty Images Alastair Meeks says one way or another we shall have a referendum result in three weeks’ time and one side will have won and one side will have lost. What next for the losing side? If Remain lose The way forward for Remain if they lose is straightforward, even if it is unpalatable to them. It will be time to give up. There should be no talk of reruns, no attempts to finesse the negotiations to…

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Local By-Elections : June 2nd 2016 (Referendum Day -21 days and counting)

2/6/2016 Editor Comments 383 Comments

Oban North and Lorn (Ind defence, elected as SNP) on Argyll and Bute Result of council at last election (2012) : Independents 15, Scottish Nationalists 13, Liberal Democrats 4, Conservatives 4 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 4) Result of ward at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected Independents 421, 807, 125, 361, 222, 58 (55%) Scottish National Party 410, 707 (31%) Conservatives 332 (9%) Liberal Democrats 188 (5%) Candidates duly nominated: Kieron Green (Ind), David Pollard (Lib Dem),…

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LEAVE closing the polling gap. Watch an examination by the PB/Polling Matters team in latest TV Show

2/6/2016 TSE Comments 428 Comments

In this week’s edition Keiran is joined by Rob Vance and Leo Barasi, where they discuss the latest EU polls – is Leave catching up? Keiran argues Leave should focus on immigration whilst Rob and Leo disagree The also discuss the next Tory leader, is Michael Gove King or Kingmaker? Also discussed Why Bob the Builder is a classic C2 swing. The audio only version of the podcast is here TSE