Clive Lewis can be Labour’s future if he plays his cards right

Clive Lewis can be Labour’s future if he plays his cards right

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The Shadow Defence Secretary is one to watch after a good conference says Keiran Pedley. On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast I was joined by Leo Barasi and Rob Vance to discuss Labour’s future. You can find the episode below. After a thumping re-election victory Jeremy Corbyn looks here to stay and we discussed where Labour goes from here. Emotions are strong on all sides but clearly some form of accommodation between the leadership and Labour MPs will need to…

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Another EU referendum before 2020 betting

Another EU referendum before 2020 betting

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If you fancy a 25% return in a little over 3 years, this might be the market for you. SkyBet have a market up on whether we’ll have another EU referendum before 2020, unlike a few other bookies, SkyBet are offering No as an option.  One of the reasons why supporters of Remain should avoid a second referendum is that the public will not take kindly to having their verdict overturned, and we could see a Winchester 1997 rerun type…

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What The Great Repeal Bill means for triggering Article 50

What The Great Repeal Bill means for triggering Article 50

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This commitment, if made and delivered, will kill the Article 50 challenge stone dead. https://t.co/45I34Dn1Bk — Jo Maugham (@JolyonMaugham) October 1, 2016 One of the most interesting aspects of the forthcoming Great Repeal Bill is the implications it will have for the Article 50 case currently progressing through the courts. The tweet above is from the eminent Q.C. Jolyon Maugham, who is involved in the Article 50 court case, indicates this is a clever way by Mrs May to stop…

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A look back to EURef: Even at 3.10am, five hours after counting began, REMAIN was still a 51% chance on Betfair

A look back to EURef: Even at 3.10am, five hours after counting began, REMAIN was still a 51% chance on Betfair

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The extraordinary moves on the biggest night of political betting ever Even though it is now more than three months away I am still getting asked question and being invited to give talks on what happened on the betting markets on that memorable night for political punters – the EU referendum results. The above has been prepared for a session in Brussels that I am taking part in later in the month. Michael Dent of Liberty Tech, is now providing…

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The big trend: CON and LAB are still failing to win voters from each other

The big trend: CON and LAB are still failing to win voters from each other

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The two big parties are left scrapping over the also rans One of the more remarkable features of the polling in the last parliament was the almost complete inability of both Labour and Conservatives to win voters from each other. Vote shares may have gone up and down but it was gains from and losses to the Lib Dems, UKIP, the Greens and SNP (and non-voters) that was responsible; the direct swing between the big two was negligible. As then,…

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CON might have enjoyed double digit leads in the polls but has had a terribe month in local by-elections

CON might have enjoyed double digit leads in the polls but has had a terribe month in local by-elections

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Seats changing hands in September 2016 Liberal Democrats GAIN Four Lanes on Cornwall from United Kingdom Independence Party Conservatives GAIN Grangefield on Stockton on Tees from Labour Liberal Democrats GAIN Mosborough on Sheffield from Labour Liberal Democrats GAIN Tupton on North East Derbyshire from Labour Liberal Democrats GAIN Plasnewydd on Cardiff from Labour Labour GAIN Christchurch on Allerdale from Conservative Plaid Cymru GAIN Cilycwm on Carmarthenshire from Independent Labour GAIN Coatbridge North and Glenboig on North Lanarkshire from Scottish National Party…

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