With the court challenge to Theresa May’s Royal Prerogative plan starting the latest Article 50 trigger date betting:

With the court challenge to Theresa May’s Royal Prerogative plan starting the latest Article 50 trigger date betting:

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Although nothing on the scale of EURef or WH2016 the biggest home political betting market at the moment is on when Article 50 will be invoked thus triggering the formal process of the UK exit from the EU. Mrs. May’s plan, which she stated again yesterday, is for this to happen by the end of March 2017. Her desire is to avoid Parliament having a say in the triggering decision stating there her authority is what happened on June 23rd….

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Is Hillary Clinton really the certainty that she now appears – the main topic in this week’s PB/Polling Matters Podcast/TV Show

Is Hillary Clinton really the certainty that she now appears – the main topic in this week’s PB/Polling Matters Podcast/TV Show

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On this week’s PB/Polling Matters show Keiran is joined by US elections experts Mark Gettleson from Portobello Communications and hosts of the LSE US podcast ‘The Ballpark’ Denise Baron and Chris Gilson. Topics discussed include reaction to Sunday’s debate and how the polls have moved since. Keiran questions whether US polls have an appropriately balanced sample. We look at polling on why US voters are voting the way they are – is it ‘for’ each candidate or ‘against’ their respective…

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YouGov London poll boost sees even UKIP & CON voters warming to Sadiq Khan

YouGov London poll boost sees even UKIP & CON voters warming to Sadiq Khan

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What is it about the London Mayoralty that gives incumbents good ratings? When Boris Johnson was Mayor of London he always manage to secure better poll ratings than just about any of his Tory colleagues. For almost his entire 8 years at City Hall his leadership ratings remained positive and so it has been so far with Sadiq Khan who was elected in May. Before Boris the Mayoralty was held by Ken who, certainly for the first few years, achieved…

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Punters continue to desert Trump as do more leading Republicans

Punters continue to desert Trump as do more leading Republicans

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The embattled GOP nominee is continuing his fight even though leading Republican figures are in effect disowning him. He’s now as likely to focus his anger on his own party as Hillary Clinton. He’ been particularly venomous about the leading Republican in Congress, Paul Ryan. Inevitably the betting has continued to move away from him. Just 16 days ago he was a 35% chance on the Betfair exchange – that’s now down to just over 15%. But his following remain…

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Initial WH2016 early voting analysis suggests that fewer Registered Republicans are voting compared with 2012

Initial WH2016 early voting analysis suggests that fewer Registered Republicans are voting compared with 2012

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Early voting in North Carolina The excellent US blog,InsightUS, is providing regular reports and analysis on early voting for the election which takes place four weeks today. In the swing state of North Carolina data is being released by the election board showing how many have early voters have participated so far and this is being compared with what was happening at exactly the same stage in 2012. The post notes:- “..North Carolina’s registered Republicans simply aren’t voting (so far,…

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The chances of Mrs May getting her own way on the Article 50 revocation date are less than 78%

The chances of Mrs May getting her own way on the Article 50 revocation date are less than 78%

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By-passing parliament is going to be tricky A massive political battle is brewing on the PM’s declaration at last week’s CON conference that she’ll invoke Article 50 to extract the UK from EU in March. As can be seen from the chart of Betfair betting above punters have moved sharply to the Jan-June 2017 option which reached an 81% chance and is now starting to slip a bit. All betting is about assessing the chances of something happening and comparing…

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Nine days to go to the by-election and a report from on the ground in Witney

Nine days to go to the by-election and a report from on the ground in Witney

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William Hill latest prices Do the betting odds have it right? Witney is a safe Tory seat was made ultra safe by the relatively equal division between Reds and Yellows plus the bonus of having the PM as MP. Last time out Labour thumped Lib Dems in the undercard. In the referendum Remain won 54-46. The constituency can be divided into three rough blocks Witney and Chipping Norton – Con v Lab The fringe of Oxford (Woodstock, Charlbury) Con v…

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The Clinton price moves to a record high on Betfair

The Clinton price moves to a record high on Betfair

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Could November 8th still produce a surprise? I’m currently in the red on the next president market. I moved into Trump in late July, saw a big increase in his price, and then failed to cash in before the first debate which, of course, changed the whole narrative. Before it Hillary was starting to sink with one swing state after another seeming to go out of her hands. Then came that first debate and Trump flunked it. The next dramatic…

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