New ICM poll finds LAB 17% behind overall with the 75+ group splitting 70-7% for the Tories
So far no sign that Corbyn’s re-election is restoring LAB’s fortunes If LAB was hoping that the end of its leadership contest with Corbyn continuing was going to restore its fortunes then there’s no sign of it yet. The latest Guardian ICM poll is out and has an overall split of: CON 43%: LAB 26%: LD 8%: UKIP 11%: GRN 6% It is the massive age differences that are very striking as can be seen in the chart above. LAB…
YouGov has Clinton winning the debate by 47% to 42%
But there was sizeable gender divide YouGov US post debate poll. Women Clinton by 50% to 38%Men Trump by 46% to 43% pic.twitter.com/kXQ638bA1I — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 10, 2016 CNN’s poll gave it to Clinton by bigger margin CNN/ORC INSTANT POLL: Who won the debate? *Clinton: 57%*Trump: 34% pic.twitter.com/kBgMoVVoC7 — Oliver Darcy (@oliverdarcy) October 10, 2016 What exactly is Trump trying to do here while Hillary is answering a question. #debate pic.twitter.com/caXu9ZBVrE — The Darkest Timeline Numbersmuncher (@NumbersMuncher) October…
Corporeal on the GOP and project Dump Trump
Trump hits GOP leadership while campaign struggles to defend him https://t.co/J5GyzUa2wn via @KyleDCheney | Getty pic.twitter.com/kWmW13KERo — POLITICO (@politico) October 9, 2016 The Trump movement, like its spiritual precursor the Tea Party, has always felt like a wave the Republican party establishment has decided to try and ride because they were scared to stand up to it. After losing the 2012 presidential election the RNC commissioned the Growth and Opportunity Project Report (link here) to assess their defeat and map a…
Joff Wild says keep an eye on Keir
If the Holborn and St Pancras MP is not the first to leave the shadow cabinet, his new Brexit role makes him a decent outside bet in the Labour leadership stakes, writes Joff Wild With Tory ministers briefing against each other as they fall out over Brexit and the Trump campaign seemingly on the verge of implosion in the US, the recent Corbyn Labour shadow cabinet reshuffle has, understandably, not grabbed many of the headlines. But it is noteworthy, nonetheless….
Taking the 20/1 on Philip Hammond being the first to leave the cabinet
Excl: Cabinet split on Brexit growing over whether to stay in EU's customs union – 'will see Hammond or Fox walking'https://t.co/w7KaQJ4Ui4 — Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) October 5, 2016 A few days ago The Sun reported that A MAJOR Cabinet split on Brexit is brewing over whether to sever all links with the EU on customs controls, The Sun can reveal. One of Theresa May’s top table team has even predicted there will be resignations from it over the tinderbox issue….
As we move to the crucial second Trump-Clinton debate the live Betfair betting odds
Given the uncertainties about Trump punters should read the bookie market rules This is for the £56m next President market on Betfair:- “Who will be elected to be the next President of the United States of America as a result of the 2016 presidential election? This market will be turned in-play at the stated time on the day of the election. Thereafter the market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times. This…
Brexit’s victory was miniscule and a swing of just 1.85% would’ve produced a different result
Theresa May is wrong to assert that the referendum outcome was “clear” The chart above shows the winning margins in the four major referendums that there have been in the UK and illustrates just how small the LEAVE victory on June 23rd was compared with the other big UK rerefendums. Certainly the 1975 EC vote and the 2011 AV one gave very clear results which it is hard to argue with. Scotland’s IndyRef in September 2014 had a double digit…