CON hold Witney with a much reduced majority & the LDs coming 2nd securing a 19.3% CON to LD swing

CON hold Witney with a much reduced majority & the LDs coming 2nd securing a 19.3% CON to LD swing

Comments 0 Comment

Witney result:CON: 45.1% (-15.1)LDEM: 30.2% (+23.5)LAB: 15.0% (-2.2)GRN: 3.5% (-1.5)UKIP: 3.5% (-5.6) — Britain Elects (@britainelects) October 21, 2016 GRN & UKIP lose deposits with the purples coming 5th In the end the Witney by-election ended up very much as predicted. The numbers above are pretty close to what Shadsy of Ladbrokes had projected in the Tweet I’d highlighted in the previous thread. For a party with double digit leads in all the national polls the Tory vote drop in…

Read More Read More

The by-election thread with Witney the main focus

The by-election thread with Witney the main focus

Comments 0 Comment

A crossroads for all parties This was a by-election that appeared so boring when Cameron stepped down as an MP that Shadsy of Ladbroke opened the betting with the Tories at 1/500. This meant a £1,000 winning bet would have produced a profit of just £2. So anything other than a Tory win by a clear margin must still be the likely outcome. The LDs, who’ve been doing exceptionally well in local council elections of late, have thrown everything into…

Read More Read More

Hillary Clinton is winning this election because it has become a referendum on Donald Trump

Hillary Clinton is winning this election because it has become a referendum on Donald Trump

Comments 0 Comment

Trump is too thin-skinned for his own good I’ve just got back from Brussels where Matthew Shaddick (the famous Shadsy of Ladbrokes) and I gave presentations about betting on politics which is almost certainly more advanced in the UK than anywhere else in the world. Of course BREXIT is still a big focus but we sought to look forward to November 8th when America decides. I’m just catching up with events in WH2016 and there’s lots of interesting insight and…

Read More Read More

White House race turnout betting

White House race turnout betting

Comments 0 Comment

Paddy Power and Betfair have markets up on the turnout on the White House race, I’m not sure what the level of turnout will be, I can see given the polarising nature of the candidates, and especially with the fervour of Trumpers, with 40% of Trump supporters in Florida telling PPP that they thought Hillary Clinton was a demon turnout will be up from the 2012. Another boost for turnout on both sides should be Trump saying in last night’s debate…

Read More Read More

Another debate, another victory for Hillary

Another debate, another victory for Hillary

Comments 0 Comment

The CNN/ORB instant post debate poll gives it to Clinton by 52% to 39%https://t.co/MYRI389v8l pic.twitter.com/33cNuEO7xK — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 20, 2016 YouGov US debate poll also gives it to Clinton by clear margin pic.twitter.com/zLZ05vNfEA — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 20, 2016 But was this the zinger of debate season? 'I brought bin Laden to justice while you hosted Celebrity Apprentice' #debatenighthttps://t.co/PufKDReglc pic.twitter.com/OK8GMFGVPG — ITV News (@itvnews) October 20, 2016 Clinton's now 84% post debate, up from 82% pre debate….

Read More Read More

Ahead of the final debate Betfair gives Trump just a 16% chance of being next President

Ahead of the final debate Betfair gives Trump just a 16% chance of being next President

Comments 0 Comment

Before the start of the third & final debate, Betfair gives Trump a 16% chance of being next President, what will it be in the morning? pic.twitter.com/ci50QuQzRr — TSE (@TSEofPB) October 19, 2016 Trump NEEDS to win tonight (and then for a lot of other things to start going his way):https://t.co/OeWCLyqfFr — 538 politics (@538politics) October 19, 2016 Prediction: By not lighting himself on fire, press will say "Trump wins debate, race 2 close". But battlegrds will stay locked 4…

Read More Read More

Latest Ipsos Mori polling sees the Tories with an 18 (eighteen) point lead

Latest Ipsos Mori polling sees the Tories with an 18 (eighteen) point lead

Comments 0 Comment

Surely on these figures the Tories should comfortably hold Witney tomorrow with an increased share of the vote? New @IpsosMORI VI poll Con 47% (+7) Lab 29% (-5) LD7% (+1) UKIP 6% (-3) The Tory lead in emojis. 1 emoji = 1% Con lead. ?????????????????? — TSE (@TSEofPB) October 19, 2016 On the approval ratings that are often better predictors of general elections than voting intention figures Oppo ldr approval, 13 mths (MORI):Foot -48Kinnock -15Smith -4Blair +16Hague -25IDS -26Howard -21Cameron…

Read More Read More

Corbyn goes to war with the PLP yet again

Corbyn goes to war with the PLP yet again

Comments 0 Comment

Embed from Getty Images   The Labour leader’s apparent decision to back Kate Hoey as the chair of the newly-created Commons Brexit select committee is an error, argues Joff Wild Jeremy Corbyn just cannot help himself. After supposedly heartfelt pleas for unity during the Labour party leadership contest, he has followed up on his controversial dismissal of former chief whip Rosie Winterton by seemingly opposing the election of Hillary Benn as chair of the newly created House of Common Brexit…

Read More Read More