A crossroads for all parties
This was a by-election that appeared so boring when Cameron stepped down as an MP that Shadsy of Ladbroke opened the betting with the Tories at 1/500. This meant a £1,000 winning bet would have produced a profit of just £2.
So anything other than a Tory win by a clear margin must still be the likely outcome. The LDs, who’ve been doing exceptionally well in local council elections of late, have thrown everything into the Oxfordshire and really need a substantial increase on the GE2015 7% to justify the effort.
This is the first CON defence since TMay became leader and she needs a good result particularly as she’s also played a part in the campaign.
Labour were on 17% in second place in 2015 and are hoping to retain as much as that as possible. Slipping to third behind the yellows won’t be good.
My view is that Shadsy of Ladbrokes is probably in the right territory with this.
Here's a #Witney by-election prediction
30% Lib Dems
— Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) October 20, 2016