politicalbetting.com – Page 1013 – The web's premier resource for political betting.

One day to go and Betfair makes Hillary an 83% chance but the markets could be over-reacting

7/11/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Why I’ve now taken my Clinton spread betting profits There’s a rule in betting generally that markets have a tendency to over-react to big news. With the White House race we saw Trump price rise sharply to more than 30% when the initial FBI announcement came about opening up the email case a week and a half ago. Overnight we’ve seen the opposite with Trump moving back to the 16-17% range on Betfair as an instant reaction to the no…

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Trump’s price is moving out Betfair because of tonight’s FBI news

6/11/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

FBI finds no evidence of criminality in latest batch of @HillaryClinton emailshttps://t.co/qbXYhlMUia #USElection pic.twitter.com/wihbpnRJt4 — BBC Breaking News (@BBCBreaking) November 6, 2016 Trump’s price on Betfair has gone from around 4.9 to over 6 just now. Tonight’s news will come as a relief to Team Clinton. My prediction on the back of tonight’s FBI intervention, if Hillary Clinton wins the Presidency on Tuesday James Comey will be resigning shortly thereafter, lest she appoints him the US Ambassador to the Islamic…

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Why Corbyn and his fans should be hoping Trump wins the White House race

6/11/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Embed from Getty Images If Trump can win the Presidency then Corbyn can become Prime Minister for the same reasons With the White House race observers on both sides of the Atlantic have tried to draw similarities to politics in the United Kingdom, namely Trump is analogous to Brexit, but perhaps the better analogy is Donald Trump is more akin to Jeremy Corbyn. At first glance the roisterer that is Donald Trump seems like the antithesis of Jeremy Corbyn but…

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Donald Trump might be engaging in some polling denial

6/11/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Embed from Getty Images Is the GOP nominee flying blind in the swing states? One of the fun things about the final few days of any election campaign, be it a US Presidential race or a UK general election is seeing where the leaders/candidates are spending the final few days of the campaign as it feels you glean where the battleground states are based on the candidate’s private polling which in turn gives you an indication of the final result….

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Memo to Seamus Milne: Your boss, Mr. Corbyn, needs to have a ready answer in situations like this

5/11/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Jeremy Corbyn ducks question on general election; accuses @LibbyWienerITV of 'harrassment'https://t.co/6IPEIahDbj pic.twitter.com/ZUsiTrBbRX — ITV News (@itvnews) November 5, 2016 The LAB media operation MUST become better

The legacy from the coalition that ties Theresa May’s hands on an early general election

5/11/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

She needs to restore the Royal Prerogative for this area Back in May 2011 whwn Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats were negotiating the Coalition deal one of the key yellow objectives was the fixed Term Parliament Act. Not wanting to get into a situation whereby the Conservatives could ditch the coalition well before the five years and go to the Country the LDs made this a key condition of putting David Cameron in Number 10. Basically there are just two…

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The WH2016 betting moves a notch back to Hillary on what’s now certain to become the biggest political betting market of all time

5/11/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The Betfair exchange We go into the final weekend with Clinton 74% Trump 25% on what's going to be the biggest political betting market of all time pic.twitter.com/FUZES7RDc3 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 5, 2016 Betfair market next President market now tops £100m This now looks certain to be the biggest political betting event of all time pic.twitter.com/LBWfa2bTwA — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 5, 2016 Sporting Index ECV spreads This morning's Electoral College Votes spreads from @SportingIndex https://t.co/KnIrSTHCcg – Clinton…

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The Telegraph’s reporting that ministers preparing for snap spring election

4/11/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

TELEGRAPH POLITICS LEAD: Ministers prep snap election #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/WHf2IgPMhf — Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) November 4, 2016 But what would they do about the Fixed Term Parliament Act?