The top ten political failures of 2016 – longstanding PBer & political punter, Pulpstar, makes his choice

The top ten political failures of 2016 – longstanding PBer & political punter, Pulpstar, makes his choice

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All political careers end in failure… Theresa May, Corbyn, Trump – Prime Minister, LOTO, POTUS. All going well for them. For now.. 10) Marco Rubio: He was the perfect GOP candidate, smart young and hispanic. The perfect foil to win the key state of Florida… The GOP primaries started off with a bang for little Marco when he scored an amazing third place in Iowa. The pundits were stunned “It shouldn’t be possible” they cried. People rushed to back him…

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Why the 5/1 that President Trump will be impeached during his first term is not an attractive bet

Why the 5/1 that President Trump will be impeached during his first term is not an attractive bet

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  Looking at the process and the politics The man whose business methods can be charitably described as unconventional will take over the most powerful and most heavily scrutinised job in the world on 20 January next. Will his tenure end in impeachment? BetFred are offering 5/1 that “Trump will be successfully impeached by 2020”. History of Presidential impeachment No US President has been impeached and removed from office. Serious proceedings have been launched against three Presidents, Andrew Johnson in 1868, Richard…

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Could it, should it, will it soon be Lord Farage?

Could it, should it, will it soon be Lord Farage?

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An intriguing part of PMQs today was May’s response when asked if UKIP leader Nigel Farage will be given a peerage – this starting speculation that he will be. The PM’s response was “such matters are normally never discussed in public”. But there is a strong case for UKIP should have some peers created for it. The party came top in the 2014 Euros with 27% of the vote and most MEPs. At GE2015 it chalked up 4m+ votes but…

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CON lead over LAB drops 9% in latest Ipsos MORI phone poll

CON lead over LAB drops 9% in latest Ipsos MORI phone poll

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Latest @IpsosMORI poll sees drop in CON lead. LAB & LDs the gainersCON 42% -5LAB 33% +4LD 10% +3UKIP 7% +1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 16, 2016 As postal voting starts in Richmond Park the yellows back in double figures The LAB and CON changes are both beyond the normal margin of error. It should be noted that the CON share of 47% in the October survey from Ipsos MORI was not matched in other polls and might well…

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The PB/Polling Matters Podcast: Why Trump won and what’ll he do in his first 100 days

The PB/Polling Matters Podcast: Why Trump won and what’ll he do in his first 100 days

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On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran is joined once more by White House Correspondent and US political analyst Jon-Christopher Bua. Jon-Christopher gives his verdict on why Trump won, what went wrong for the Clinton campaign and what happens next with a specific focus on President Trump’s first 100 days. Later in the show Keiran gives his perspective on what happened with the polls and where pundits went wrong. Follow Keiran at @keiranpedley and Jon-Christopher at @JCBua

The robots are coming

The robots are coming

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A guest slot from CycleFree on globalisation In her Mansion House speech, May said this about those who viewed the forces of globalization (“this agenda as the answer to all our ills””) in a different light to those who promoted it – “These people – often those on modest to low incomes living in rich countries like our own – see their jobs being outsourced and wages undercut.”  She went on: “When you refuse to accept that globalization in its…

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Punters not totally convinced that Theresa will meet her Article 50 time-table

Punters not totally convinced that Theresa will meet her Article 50 time-table

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Betfair punters make it a 54% chance that TMay will invoke Article 50 before end June pic.twitter.com/EyaO01qSvb — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 15, 2016 The big BREXIT news this morning is that it has been made known that the government has drafted a one line bill as a contingency should the Supreme Court uphold the government’s appeal against TMay’s plan to by-pass parliament and use the Royal Prerogative. The bill is apparently worded in such a manner that the Number…

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If you’re expecting final WH2016 vote totals quickly don’t hold your breath. In 2012 we had to wait till January

If you’re expecting final WH2016 vote totals quickly don’t hold your breath. In 2012 we had to wait till January

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After election night in 2012 Obama was 2% ahead in the popular vote. By January 2013 it reached 3.85% At the 2012 White House Race we had a very special reason on PB to pay close attention to the precise national popular vote numbers in the period after the election. William Hill had offered £1,000 in free bets and the competition was to predict the winning national vote margin to two decimal points. My naive assumption in devising it like…

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