Betfair punters make it a 54% chance that TMay will invoke Article 50 before end June pic.twitter.com/EyaO01qSvb
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 15, 2016
The big BREXIT news this morning is that it has been made known that the government has drafted a one line bill as a contingency should the Supreme Court uphold the government’s appeal against TMay’s plan to by-pass parliament and use the Royal Prerogative.
The bill is apparently worded in such a manner that the Number 10 team think that it is unamendable.
Clearly it makes sense for there to be a contingency plan. The question is whether this bill, assuming its enacted, will be enough to permit May to proceed.
Meanwhile a Times report this morning says that a report has been prepared suggesting that the process of EU extraction will require 30k more civil servants.
So far TMy and team have managed to negotiate their way through this without giving any real indication of what their strategy is likely to be. Are they going to prioritise constraining immigration over the single market? What was said to the boss of Nissan?
My guess is that May and team are going to need to reveal more to get the bill through.
One thing we know about the PM is that she’s not good at sharing information.
A complication in the legal process is whether the ECJ could be brought in which would slow down things even further.