In today’s unique national primary French Republicans are voting on who’ll be the one to take on Marine Le Pen

In today’s unique national primary French Republicans are voting on who’ll be the one to take on Marine Le Pen

Comments 0 Comment

The 2017 French Presidential election now the biggest political betting market There’s a unique election taking place in France today with members of the public who declare themselves to be Republican party supporters able to vote in a national primary to decide who’ll be the flag-carrier next April. The rules of the primary are straightforward. If no contender secures 50% of the vote today then the top two will fight again in a runoff next week. This is exactly the…

Read More Read More

Worried about BREXIT – fear no more. Tony Blair is coming to the rescue

Worried about BREXIT – fear no more. Tony Blair is coming to the rescue

Comments 0 Comment

And he’s said to be ready to team up with George Osborne Hard to know what to make of the above story in today’s Sunday Times about Labour’s most successful leader in terms of winning elections. Whatever your view Blair he was an immense political figure and clearly has been looking for a role in the UK nine years after he stepped down as PM and quit as an MP. But quite what he is able to do now and…

Read More Read More

Some more bad polling for Labour, its leader and shadow chancellor

Some more bad polling for Labour, its leader and shadow chancellor

Comments 0 Comment

New Opinium pollCON 41% +1LAB 29% -3UKIP 12%LD 7% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2016 Another polling blow for LAB on the economy this time from Opinium for ObserverTrust inCorbyn /McDonnell 18%May/Hammond 44% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2016 As each month goes by the next election gets closer

Five months after the vote and BREXIT is as divisive an issue as ever

Five months after the vote and BREXIT is as divisive an issue as ever

Comments 0 Comment

Very few referendum voters have changed their minds As we get closer to the PM’s target invoke Article 50 date of March 31st we are going to get a lot more polling like that above. The fact is that the June 23rd outcome was very close, LEAVE chalked up 1.89% more than the 50% required for victory, and the nation remains split. The big issue in the next couple of weeks will be the Supreme Court hearing on whether the…

Read More Read More

What if Trump does prefer Putin over Juncker?

What if Trump does prefer Putin over Juncker?

Comments 0 Comment

And where would that leave the Brexit process? A weary-sounding Jean-Claude Juncker told students in his home state of Luxembourg last week that “we will need to teach the president-elect [i.e. Donald Trump] what Europe is and how it works”. In doing so, he erred badly, not for the first time. You can hear the derision dripping from the words, as, no doubt can the chief occupant of Trump Tower; not someone known for brushing off condescension. If Juncker is…

Read More Read More

Who should we include in the next PB/YouGov Favourability ratings?

Who should we include in the next PB/YouGov Favourability ratings?

Comments 0 Comment

In August PB was able to have its own YouGov favourability ratings. I am pleased to say that we are now in a position to go forward with a similar survey. Last time we had:- Barack Obama Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Vladimir Putin Angela Merkel Conservative Party Labour Party Liberal Democrats UKIP SNP Theresa May Boris Johnson David Davis Phillip Hammond Jeremy Corbyn Tim Farron David Cameron MPs generally Your MP Clearly some of these are no longer relevant although…

Read More Read More

The LD demand for a 2nd EURef could have similar potency as being totally opposed to the 2003 invasion of Iraq

The LD demand for a 2nd EURef could have similar potency as being totally opposed to the 2003 invasion of Iraq

Comments 0 Comment

YouGov: LDs could edge in front of LAB if it was only party with such a promise We all remember how in late 2002 and 2003 that the IDS-led Tories gave their backing to Blair’s invasion of Iraq. The Charles Kennedy-led LDs were the only national party to oppose and this stance stance helped them to their best ever performance at GE2005. We’ve now got a similar situation with BREXIT. May’s Tories have totally dished the idea and Labour’s position,…

Read More Read More

Three CON defences and a GREEN one – tonight’s local council by-elections

Three CON defences and a GREEN one – tonight’s local council by-elections

Comments 0 Comment

Abbey (Green defence) on Bath and North East Somerset Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 37, Liberal Democrats 15, Labour 6, Independents 5, Green Party 2 (Conservative majority of 9) Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives 1,158, 985 (30%) Green Party 1,071 (28%) Liberal Democrats 798, 741 (21%) Labour 639 (17%) Independent 148 (4%) EU Referendum Result: REMAIN 60,878 (58%), LEAVE 44,352 (42%) on a turnout of 77% Candidates duly nominated: Gerry Curran…

Read More Read More