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As the A50 Supreme Court hearing starts YouGov finds just 46% having a favourable view of senior judges

5/12/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

LEAVE voters give them a net negative Yesterday Ipsos-MORI released its latest trust index and found that 81% saying that judges tell the truth. The fieldwork took place nearly a month ago. In new YouGov polling asking about favourability a very different picture emerges as the chart above shows. This is based on fieldwork carried out in the middle of last week in the days before today’s start of the historic Article 50 Supreme Court hearing. The split between the…

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Saved by der Bellen but what will the Italian referendum bring for the EU?

4/12/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Saved by der Bellen? Hofer concedes in the Austrian Presidential election. But what does it mean for the EU?https://t.co/RHFJO7cIcW — TSE (@TSEofPB) December 4, 2016 Another polling failure? A bit harsh when polls are banned for the final fortnight Austria: … and the polls failed again. #bpw16 #polls #Umfragen #vanderBellen pic.twitter.com/CednTGNVNl — Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) December 4, 2016 Latest Italian referendum betting TSE

In the week the Article 50 case is heard before the Supreme Court, the public has more than three times the trust in judges than journalists

4/12/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

81% of the public have trust in the enemies of the people, just 24% have trust in journalists @IpsosMORI finds https://t.co/RhdrJI6BYj pic.twitter.com/THZUzyOJ50 — TSE (@TSEofPB) December 4, 2016 Ipsos Mori have published their annual veracity index, with the Article 50 case being heard in the UK’s highest appellate court, it was amusing to contrast the trust in the enemies of the people judges compared to journalists. Only Government ministers, and politicians in general are less trusted than journalists, whilst Estate Agents…

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Defection watch. Betting on Jacob Rees-Mogg to defect to UKIP

4/12/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Embed from Getty Images Will Jacob Rees-Mogg defect to UKIP if Mrs May delivers a non-hard Brexit? Paddy Power have a market up whether some politicians will defect by 2018. On initial glance this looks like a market designed to solely enrich Paddy Power, I did think of backing Douglas Carswell doing a Churchill and defecting back, but given the precedent he has set, he won’t wish to inflict another by election on the voters of Clacton, so that’s that…

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UKIP’s dreadful YouGov party favourability ratings now get even worse

3/12/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Only the Tories see an improvement in their net ratings The last time this polling was carried our was in August and since then a lot of things have happened. Note that the fieldwork for this latest polling took place on Tuesday and Wednesday so before the Richmond Park by-election. UKIP In August what was then Farage’s party had 24%-62% Favourable-Unfavourable, a net minus 38%. That’s now minus 44%. CON The August Tory figures were 34-53 so a net minus…

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UKIP has ceased to be a serious player and the BBC should stop pandering to them

3/12/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Last night we had Radio 4’s Any Questions in town. It was a good evening except for the fact that there was no Lib Dem on the panel. Instead we had as well as the statutory LAB & CON rep an SNP MP and the barely coherent deputy UKIP leader, Peter Whittle. You’d have thought that the BBC planners would have figured out that the Richmond by-election was taking place the day before and would likely feature a Lib Dem…

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The chances of a 2017 general election have just increased

3/12/2016 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

A smaller majority and greater Brexit pressure could force May’s hand The Lib Dems have their mojo back. Their result in Witney was good but safe seat or not, second is the best-placed loser. It’s winning that counts and it was a win that was delivered in Richmond Park on Thursday. After more than ten years without a gain, the campaign surge, the tactical votes and the Friday celebration must come as a long-overdue reminder of the good old days…

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Labour has many things to worry about at the moment – losing its deposit in Richmond isn’t one of them

2/12/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Giant Goldsmith crushed by miniature rival. pic.twitter.com/UfyYmcXCJO — Adam Bienkov (@AdamBienkov) December 2, 2016 Like in previous tight CON-LD fights LAB got squeezed. So what? A lot of tosh has been written today about Labour’s loss of deposit for coming in under 5% in Richmond Park. That its vote total of 1,515 was lower than the 1,600 party members it has in the constituency has provided fuel for those wanting to attack the leadership on this. What people haven’t appreciated…

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