This might be reading it all wrong but the LAB vote share is the big interest tomorrow in Sleaford and Hykeham N

This might be reading it all wrong but the LAB vote share is the big interest tomorrow in Sleaford and Hykeham N

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Corbyn in Sleaford where tomorrow's by-election is taking place pic.twitter.com/Xg4s3lW8gf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 7, 2016 William Hill have not taken a single bet on Labour winning the Sleaford by-election, for which they are currently quoted at odds of 80/1. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 7, 2016 7/2 for the Lib Dems to get over 20% in tomorrow's Sleaford & N.Hykeham by-election #libdemfightbackhttps://t.co/PLd73nh62q pic.twitter.com/VND8nZPHu7 — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) December 7, 2016 Sleaford & Hykeham N. What happened at GE…

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Day 3 of the Supreme Court hearing opens with the Government’s Betfair chances down to lowest level yet

Day 3 of the Supreme Court hearing opens with the Government’s Betfair chances down to lowest level yet

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You can watch live here. In the Commons today there is the debate on the Labour motion on the triggering of Article 50 and its neat amendment by the Government to accept the principle but links in a statement on the referendum outcome itself. Whether TMay is able to set the process of extraction going by her self-imposed end March deadline isn’t clear. Her problem remains that a sizeable group of her own backbenchers are against her and that she…

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Thurday’s Sleaford and North Hykeham by-election – A certain CON hold or could we see a surprise?

Thurday’s Sleaford and North Hykeham by-election – A certain CON hold or could we see a surprise?

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An opportunity for UKIP’s Doctor Nuttall? While there’s been a huge amount of focus on Richmond Park the by-election in Sleaford and North Hykeham has received far less attention – both from the parties themselves and the media. The result from last time makes it difficult to see other than a CON hold on a very much reduced turnout. The fact that it is happening in December so close to Christmas is surely going to depress the number of voters…

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The polls did NOT get BREXIT wrong: Only 41% had REMAIN leads. 59% didn’t

The polls did NOT get BREXIT wrong: Only 41% had REMAIN leads. 59% didn’t

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Is it too much to expect Britain’s PR people to check simple facts? One of the enduring myths from June 23rd was that the polls got it wrong. Some did but most in the official campaign period didn’t as shown in the chart. That esteemed body that allegedly speaks for PR people, the Public Relations and Communications Association (PRCA), has announced it is holding an inquiry into polling specifically referencing GE2015 and the June 23rd referendum. Certainly the former was…

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Taking stock of 2016. What do you think were the biggest events of this extraordinary political year?

Taking stock of 2016. What do you think were the biggest events of this extraordinary political year?

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Take the survey in advance of this week’s PB/Polling Matters Podcast Ahead of this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast the team have come up with a short survey so that readers of PB can give their thoughts on the biggest winners, losers, shocks and moments from the past year. Also, perhaps controversially, there is a question in the survey on who people think has been the PB poster of the year. To take part please click here. Results will be read…

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Tonight’s local by-election

Tonight’s local by-election

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Carnoustie and District (SNP defence) on Angus Result of council at last election (2012): Scottish National Party 15, Independents 8, Conservatives 4, Labour 1, Liberal Democrat 1 (Scottish National Party majority of 1) Result of ward at last election (2012): Emboldened denotes elected Independents 483, 1,750 (51%) Scottish National Party 582, 1,029 (36%) Labour 274 (6%) Conservatives 271 (6%) Liberal Democrat 41 (1%) EU Referendum Result: REMAIN 32,747 (55%) LEAVE 26,511 (45%) on a turnout of 68% Candidates duly nominated:…

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The Article 50 Supreme Court case betting moves a notch to the government on the first morning – but still behind

The Article 50 Supreme Court case betting moves a notch to the government on the first morning – but still behind

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Whether you can read anything into this I doubt If you’ve got lots of time on your hands you can watch the case live here. The best comment so far is “OJ Simpson it ain’t”. This is all dry legal argument and will go on like this for most of the week. The verdict’s not expected until the new year. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet