Watch America’s “Political Futures” exchange With the big poll swings back to the challenger, John Kerry, all eyes are on the President to see if he can hold on. Will he win a second term when America votes in 22 days time or will he follow in the footsteps of his father and fail to get re-elected. A week and a half ago it looked pretty good for the President and you could have got 11/4 on Kerry with William…
WHITE HOUSE LATEST:….POLLS….PRICES….ELECTORAL VOTES With the ending of the party conference season in the UK and the US election barely three weeks away there’s lots of meat for political gamblers in the papers this morning. The Sunday Times’s Andrew Sullivan, in our view the best commentator on the US scene, has a good description of how the White House race is going and the impact of the TV debates. His piece starts- Presidential campaigns have issues, candidates and polls. They…
WHITE HOUSE LATEST:….POLLS….PRICES….ELECTORAL VOTES UPDATED 4.45 pm A poll, by Gallup, on last night’s second TV debate has those surveyed rating John Kerry as a narrow winner by 47% to 45%. When asked if they felt more favourable about the candidates after the debate, 38% were more favourable to Kerry and 20% were less favourable. The Bush figures were 31% and 20%. An ABC poll had Kerry the winner by 44-41%. The verdict of gamblers to the second of the…
Latest electoral vote estimate – Kerry 280 – Bush 239 The Democratic challenger, John Kerry, has moved into the lead on the electoral college calculator based on the latest state polls. This is the first time since the conventions that Kerry has been in this position and the news comes as he prepares for the second of the set-piece TV debates with President Bush. It was Kerry’s performance in the first debate eight days ago that turned the tide for…
Back Bush to lose and Blair to go How are the political fortunes of George Bush and Tony Blair going to be affected by the findings of the Iraq Survey Group about the lack of WMDs, especially as this come on top of the acceptance by Donald Rumsfield that Saddam was not responsible for 11 September? Even before the WMD report the the White House race was moving back to John Kerry after his success in the TV debate last…
UPDATED SUNDAY 5AM Is now the time to back Kerry? The first polls following Thursday’s White House debate in Miami show a big majority of those who watched saying that John Kerry was the winner. An ABC news poll had it 45% Kerry to 36% Bush. Meanwhile the first post-debate poll on the race itself has been conducted and puts Kerry in the lead by 47-45. There’s been a big move back to John Kerry in the betting and the…
Is the Bush-Cheney ticket a certainty? Since the Republican Convention in New York at the end of August the betting markets have followed the polls and Bush is a red hot favourite. It’s hard to call anything other than Bush. But it’s worth looking back at what happened last time to check which pollsters were most accurate. These were the final polls. CNN/Gallup tracking poll: Bush over Gore 47-45. Wall St. Journal: Bush over Gore 47-44. ABC/Washington Post: Bush over…
The money piles on Bush Whether this will help Tony Blair or hinder him the polls and betting continue to move in the way of his war partner, George W. Bush, in the race for the White House. In recent days the President has been attracting big support in betting markets on both sides of the Atlantic and now the best conventional price you can get in the UK is just on 1/2. It’s the reverse with John Kerry for…