YouGov How will it split as the share for “others” gets smaller? Following Tuesday’s thread on the decline in poll shares for the other parties a key question is who will benefit the most? For working out where these votes will go could be the key element in predicting what is going to happen on the day and whether Labour will be able to stop Cameron’s Tories from forming a majority government. A problem is that there’s so little polling…
Do the latest polls show it’s the end of the “others”? The dominating feature of the polls since last June’s Euro elections was that “others” – mainly GRN/BNP/UKIP – looked set to take a significant shares. These three parties together with PC/SNP in Wales and Scotland secured about 8% of GB vote in 2005. In some polls in the past few months this has touched 18% and a big question has been whether the Tories or Labour are being hit…
YouGov for Channel 4 June 2009 Can Labour really expect to benefit most? The above is from the massive 32,268 sample YouGov poll taken just before the Euro Election last June and is just about the best resource we’ve got on the attitudes and backgrounds of those who, in that election at least, supported the “others” – the BNP, UKIP or the Greens. For given the continued very high shares that are being recorded for this segment this survey might…
The UKIP General-Secretary responds to Robert Smithson Occasionally the conventional laws of party politics must be put on hold – Blaenau Gwent, Bethnal Green & Bow and Wyre Forest being recent examples. Unusual scenarios lead to unpredictable outcomes; unique circumstances require mundane notions such as swing to be cast aside. Voters no longer make decisions based upon tribal party loyalty; they examine the candidates and decide who is best for the job. On Thursday evening Robert Smithson offered reasons for…
But will it be the same in the marginals? Just looking at the detailed data for the latest ComRes poll and we see the dynamic that is causing the Tory totals to fall and is putting into question what seemed to be the forgone conclusion of a Tory majority. For helpfully the firm is the only one of the pollsters where it’s possible to see the switching to the minor parties from what respondents said they did at the general…
BBC news – Nov 4th Can Dave win back the Tory doubters? All seventeen polls published between the end of the Tory Party conference and Cameron’s dropping of his pledge to hold a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty had the Conservatives on at least 40%; of the eight published since then, only twice has the Tory share broken into the forties. Two conversations I’ve had in the last week give anecdotal evidence that Cameron’s move has gone down badly in…
How less than one in five are ex-Tory voters This is the first part of some analysis I’ve been doing on the rise of “others” – UKIP, the BNP and the Greens – and the impact that they might have at the next general election. A big question to start with is where is UKIP support coming from? What can we find out from the polling data? The following numbers are based on the aggregation of all the relevant data…
BBC news What a terrible day for UKIP for this to come out? On the day after the Tory change of heart on the Lisbon referendum the anti-EU party that did so well last June, UKIP, must have been hoping for better headlines than this. This was the opportunity, surely, for them to be presenting themselves as an alternative to Cameron’s Tories. And what happens? We get the news from Southwark Crown court and UKIP has to deal with terrible…