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Category: UKIP

ICM – the pollster PBers voted Britain’s most accurate – has UKIP moving to a record 7 percent

ICM – the pollster PBers voted Britain’s most accurate – has UKIP moving to a record 7 percent

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The party breakdown & changes in this month’s ICM phone poll – which has UKIP at a record high for the firm. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2012 LAB is leading by 47% to 30% amongst women in tonight’s ICM poll. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2012 The CON share of 32% from ICM is the second lowest from the firm since David Cameron became leader in Dec 2005 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2012 Cameron’s…

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The ComRes polling that totally undermines the notion that UKIP voters are simply “Tories on holiday”

The ComRes polling that totally undermines the notion that UKIP voters are simply “Tories on holiday”

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If ComRes is right the Tories are seriously over-estimating the potential for UKIP switching bit.ly/RKTZ5L twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 18, 2012 Just 18% of current UKIP voters say they’d “consider” the Tories From the three online polls that have come out overnight there is one sets of findings that stand out – the responses to the ComRes “potential to switch” question. Poll participants were asked after giving their party choice what other parties they could see themselves “seriously…

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Could Nadine jump ship to UKIP? It’s now evens that an MP will defect before the general election

Could Nadine jump ship to UKIP? It’s now evens that an MP will defect before the general election

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Could Nadine’s suspension provoke her into switching to UKIP? Has the chief whip been too harsh? bit.ly/RGG3cR twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 6, 2012 Her suspension might just provoke a switch Ladbrokes have tonight tightened the odds to evens that there’ll be a defection to UKIP during this parliament. This follows the move by the Chief Whip to suspend Nadine Dorries as a Conservative MP because she’s taking part in he latest series of “I’m a celebrity get me…

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Is UKIP here to stay as a serious player?

Is UKIP here to stay as a serious player?

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Have they been given the space to emerge onto the main stage? Being taken seriously is the first and probably the biggest challenge for any group or individual outside the mainstream seeking to break in. Politics, like so much of society, has institutional inertia and it takes a lot to disrupt the virtuous circles keeping the main parties in place and the rest out. Put simply, without support, you don’t get any attention or credibility; without credibility and attention, you…

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MEMO to Nigel Farage: Check out the Corby Cube Controversy

MEMO to Nigel Farage: Check out the Corby Cube Controversy

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Click to see BBC regional news report Is this the issue to put Labour on the defensive? A good by-election campaign always needs a good local issue – especially one that in skillful hands can be used to portray the front-runner in a poor light. Enter the Corby Cube – which opened on 2 November 2010 and cost £47.5m. It houses a chamber for the Borough Council, a Registry Office, a public library, a 450-seat theatre and a 100-seat studio…

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ConHome activists have got it wrong on UKIP voters

ConHome activists have got it wrong on UKIP voters

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It’s wrong to assume that UKIP backers are “Tories on Holiday” Tucked away behind the Times paywall is a story this morning about a new ComHome survey of the so-called “Tory grass-roots” that suggests that a significant proportion think that a deal with UKIP would boost their chances at the next election. It says that “Six out of ten think such a move would boost the party’s electoral hopes by bridging the divide on the right of British politics”. But…

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Top pollsters agree: The Tories are getting it wrong on UKIP

Top pollsters agree: The Tories are getting it wrong on UKIP

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@benatipsosmori @MSmithsonPB Me too. — Martin Boon (@martinboon) July 3, 2012 The EU isn’t the driver that many think it is After this morning’s thread header arguing that the Conservatives were misreading the threat from UKIP two of the UK’s top political pollsters, the CEOs of Ipsos-MORI and ICM, Ben Page and Martin Boon, have Tweeted to say they agree. The point that was being made, using reported information about the Tories’ private polling, was that the impact of the…

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Two in 3 CON-UKIP switchers DO NOT mention the EU

Two in 3 CON-UKIP switchers DO NOT mention the EU

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Are the Tories mis-reading the threat from Farage? I’ve just come across some intriguing polling that was tucked away in a post on the Coffee House website last month by the Speccie’s James Forsyth, In it he reported on a series of “calm the nerves” briefing sessions that are being held at Number 10 for groups of a dozen or so Tory back-benchers. Part of this is a presentation by the ex-Populus boss who is now Number 10’s strategy director,…

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